# Lounge > Real Estate / Finance >  Variable mortgage regret?

## 03ozwhip

Anyone else have this? I bought my house last June and decided to try out the variable, clearly at the worst time in fucking history.

I went from paying about 10% in interest over principle to 50% in a year and at this point, im not even sure locking into a 5+ percent mortgage is a good idea at this point, but hearing rates might go so far that I won't be paying any principle off is alarming for sure.

Anyone else have the regret of doing variable at this point ir did you panic and lock in like I should have done months ago lol

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## killramos

Seems relevant:

https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.c...-year-end-rbc/

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## Buster

My biggest regret is not buying that time machine when I had the opportunity.

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## killramos

> My biggest regret is not buying that time machine when I had the opportunity.



What a derp move

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## Brent.ff

felt pretty good for a while at 1.45.. but ya should have hopped to the 1.9% fixed when they were offering it..

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## jutes

Die with the most debt possible. YOLO

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## max_boost

> Die with the most debt possible. YOLO



Yes. 7.2 in debt if the bank would let me.

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## Kloubek

> My biggest regret is not buying that time machine when I had the opportunity.



...if only you had a time machine to go back to that time.

If some of you recall, I came on here asking the peeps if they felt we should go with a variable or fixed on our renewal. Almost 100% of everyone said variable, which turned out to be a poor choice. But honestly, who would have expected this much of a hike so soon? That hasn't happened in decades.

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## 03ozwhip

> ...if only you had a time machine to go back to that time.
> 
> If some of you recall, I came on here asking the peeps if they felt we should go with a variable or fixed on our renewal. Almost 100% of everyone said fixed, which turned out to be a poor choice. But honestly, who would have expected this much of a hike so soon? That hasn't happened in decades.



How long ago was that?

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## msommers

We signed a variable in July, and given the fixed-rates at the time it's nearing that point. That said I still believe over the 5-year term we'll be ahead, just this first year or so that will feel painful.

All things considered, 4% interest relative to rates over the last 30 years is pretty darn good.

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## Buster

> Anyone else have this? I bought my house last June and decided to try out the variable, clearly at the worst time in fucking history.
> 
> I went from paying about 10% in interest over principle to 50% in a year and at this point, im not even sure locking into a 5+ percent mortgage is a good idea at this point, but hearing rates might go so far that I won't be paying any principle off is alarming for sure.
> 
> Anyone else have the regret of doing variable at this point ir did you panic and lock in like I should have done months ago lol



In all seriousness, regret is a tough thing to deal with. So stop it.

People regret outcomes, which is a dangerous game to play. What you need to do is assess your decision making at the time. Did you make the best possible decision with the information that you had? If you fucked up the decision, then feel free to regret that. If you regret the outcomes, then you're just being a dope who doesn't understand that life is probabilistic and uncertain. People who are willing to embrace the probabilistic and use that as a context for their decision-making get ahead in life. People who demand certainty in life - let's call them "babies" - are eventually going to be at the mercy of those that understand that certainty is fundamentally an impossible goal and to chase it is a fool's errand which will only cost them money and opportunities. You must make predictions in life, we all do it all of the time. However, it is worth distinguishing between situations where predictions may have some utility for you, and situations which are inherently unknowable and thus inherently unpredictable. 

Did you make the wrong decision with your variable rate? No, you did not. Did you get the best possible outcome? No you did not. Both of these statements can be true.

Assess your current situation, determine what you can now predict based on your current information. Don't be tricked into thinking you can now know a future unknowable because of your past painful experience and work the current situation as best you can. Or...lapse into being a little bitch like 99% of the population out there who is owned by people who are more evolved in their epistemology.

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## suntan

> ...if only you had a time machine to go back to that time.
> 
> If some of you recall, I came on here asking the peeps if they felt we should go with a variable or fixed on our renewal. Almost 100% of everyone said fixed, which turned out to be a poor choice. *But honestly, who would have expected this much of a hike so soon?* That hasn't happened in decades.



Um, me? Because I paid attention in my econ classes?

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## max_boost

> In all seriousness, regret is a tough thing to deal with. So stop it.
> 
> People regret outcomes, which is a dangerous game to play. What you need to do is assess your decision making at the time. Did you make the best possible decision with the information that you had? If you fucked up the decision, then feel free to regret that. If you regret the outcomes, then you're just being a dope who doesn't understand that life is probabilistic and uncertain. People who are willing to embrace the probabilistic and use that as a context for their decision-making get ahead in life. People who demand certainty in life - let's call them "babies" - are eventually going to be at the mercy of those that understand that certainty is fundamentally an impossible goal and to chase it is a fool's errand which will only cost them money and opportunities. You must make predictions in life, we all do it all of the time. However, it is worth distinguishing between situations where predictions may have some utility for you, and situations which are inherently unknowable and thus inherently unpredictable. 
> 
> Did you make the wrong decision with your variable rate? No, you did not. Did you get the best possible outcome? No you did not. Both of these statements can be true.
> 
> Assess your current situation, determine what you can now predict based on your current information. Don't be tricked into thinking you can now know a future unknowable because of your past painful experience and work the current situation as best you can. Or...lapse into being a little bitch like 99% of the population out there who is owned by people who are more evolved in their epistemology.



Reading that was like therapy lol thx bro

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## spike98

> Seems relevant:
> 
> https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.c...-year-end-rbc/



So about 0.013% of all mortgages in canada....well the sky is falling..

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## killramos

> So about 0.013% of all mortgages in canada....well the sky is falling..



I mean that’s just people who have an RBC mortgage. And just this year. But all in all it’s a good gut check.

The stuff that will really turns stomaches is those people who will come off a 1-2% rate into a 4-5% rate when their term ends.

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## Hallowed_point

> In all seriousness, regret is a tough thing to deal with. So stop it.
> 
> People regret outcomes, which is a dangerous game to play. What you need to do is assess your decision making at the time. Did you make the best possible decision with the information that you had? If you fucked up the decision, then feel free to regret that. If you regret the outcomes, then you're just being a dope who doesn't understand that life is probabilistic and uncertain. People who are willing to embrace the probabilistic and use that as a context for their decision-making get ahead in life. People who demand certainty in life - let's call them "babies" - are eventually going to be at the mercy of those that understand that certainty is fundamentally an impossible goal and to chase it is a fool's errand which will only cost them money and opportunities. You must make predictions in life, we all do it all of the time. However, it is worth distinguishing between situations where predictions may have some utility for you, and situations which are inherently unknowable and thus inherently unpredictable. 
> 
> Did you make the wrong decision with your variable rate? No, you did not. Did you get the best possible outcome? No you did not. Both of these statements can be true.
> 
> Assess your current situation, determine what you can now predict based on your current information. Don't be tricked into thinking you can now know a future unknowable because of your past painful experience and work the current situation as best you can. Or...lapse into being a little bitch like 99% of the population out there who is owned by people who are more evolved in their epistemology.



Really needed that today, solid post my man!

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## JohnnyHockey13

Buster is actually a real sweetie pie in real life.

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## DonJuan

> Buster is actually a real sweetie pie in real life.



That's one of the best posts I've seen in a while.

My mtg is up for renewal this year and debating between the variable and fixed. Thinking about shopping around to other banks. (TD currently)

As for you Columbus family man. Change your location.  :Big Grin:

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## ExtraSlow

Shopping around to different places including some not-a-bank options is very wise.

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## suntan

> Buster is actually a real sweetie pie in real life.



He's also shaped like a pie.

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## Buster

> He's also shaped like a pie.



you are what you eat.

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## msommers

> That's one of the best posts I've seen in a while.
> 
> My mtg is up for renewal this year and debating between the variable and fixed. Thinking about shopping around to other banks. (TD currently)



We got quotes from 6 brokers and 2 banks (stayed with the bank where I had original mortgage with). We got the whole gamut from not even qualifying to 150K over what we budgetted for, to bizarre conditions to fulfill and at one point being told paying less than 20% was "a good option because the rate is less" lulz 

At the time, rates were essentially identical as we put 20% down and (as we were told) only three lenders deal with conservative mortgages: Scotia, ATB and...I want to say TD?

Fun fact we also learned from selling and buying: brokers make money off the total mortgage sold. We found this out as I was inquiring about porting from one broker and she told us straight up there's no point. Except the point was they'd get 1/3 less of their commission!

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## Twin_Cam_Turbo

Fiancé regrets it, I paid cash for my portion so it doesn’t really affect me.

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## 88CRX

I've always been on a fixed mortgage... gonna #yolo my renewal next spring and go variable.

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## sabad66

> ...if only you had a time machine to go back to that time.
> 
> If some of you recall, I came on here asking the peeps if they felt we should go with a variable or fixed on our renewal. Almost 100% of everyone said *fixed*, which turned out to be a poor choice. But honestly, who would have expected this much of a hike so soon? That hasn't happened in decades.



I assume that’s a typo. You mean almost everyone said to go variable?

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## vengie

> Fiancé regrets it, I paid cash for my portion so it doesn’t really affect me.



Quote for potential future lulz.

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## DonJuan

> Fiancé regrets it, I paid cash for my portion so it doesn’t really affect me.



*gets married* *OUR* mortgage

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## max_boost

> Quote for potential future lulz.



Hahahaha he’s a young Padawan lol

And yes I hear busty and Killy are sweethearts irl  :Love:

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## flipstah

> you are what you eat.



Do you provide samples?

<3

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## Twin_Cam_Turbo

> Quote for potential future lulz.



We had a contract drawn up by a lawyer when we bought regarding this so not really so worried. She also pays more towards most things and I cover the car costs fully, since she make significantly more money.

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## vengie

You can tell yourself whatever you want to help you sleep at night.

May the odds be ever in your favor.

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## roopi

So she got you to sign a prenup basically. Hope you get spousal support later.

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## ercchry

> at one point being told paying less than 20% was "a good option because the rate is less" lulz



…it can actually workout in your favour depending on the delta between the rates as 20% down is the worst and you need at least 35% equity to match insured rates… the sweet spot is somewhere around 15% down most of the time as that insured status will follow you to another lender as long as you don’t refinance

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## DonJuan

Signs agreement; goes out and buys 2 Toyotas and a reliable BMW diesel. Well played.

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## Twin_Cam_Turbo

> Signs agreement; goes out and buys 2 Toyotas and a reliable BMW diesel. Well played.



One Toyota is sold and leaving Sunday, BMW hopefully soon too.

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## max_boost

> We had a contract drawn up by a lawyer when we bought regarding this so not really so worried. She also pays more towards most things and I cover the car costs fully, since she make significantly more money.



I need to find one who makes significantly more money than me. That be nice.

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## suntan

He’s living the dream.

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## bjstare

I have a buddy who married a girl who made more than him. She turned out to be a bitch (or so I hear), and she chose to leave him. He's currently in the process of taking her to the cleaners.

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## suntan

> I have a buddy who married a girl who made more than him. She turned out to be a bitch (or so I hear), and she chose to leave him. He's currently in the process of taking her to the cleaners.



I came.

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## Kloubek

> How long ago was that?



As luck would have it, it was literally immediately before interest rates started their climb. I think it was around February? May have been early March?




> I assume that’s a typo. You mean almost everyone said to go variable?



Sorry... yes. Will change my OP.

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## pheoxs

Is what it is tbh. Sometimes in life you'll come out ahead and sometimes you'll come out behind. I, like many dumb dumbs, believed the BoC when they stated, repeatedly, that rates would remain low through 2023 or 2024.

HSBC 0.99% variable originally but currently up to 3.46%. Is unfortunate but when I signed the best options we're around 2%, so while I'm currently losing, it's not the end of the world. Still quite a few years to see how it pans out, Canada seems to be driving itself into a recession given our shitstain at the helm not really doing anything meaningful so I fully expect a rate raise by end of the year but in 2023 or 2024 some panic and rate drops to stimulate us out of a recession.

Would still likely resign variable again as, over long enough time, it'll likely come out ahead. Just how the markets go sometimes, can't get spooked in the short term.

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## Kloubek

> Um, me? Because I paid attention in my econ classes?



Logic dictates the rate had nowhere to go but up, though I think a lot of us uneducated folk assumed it would remain quite low for some time.

But really, the last couple of years have been a Murphy's Law of socioeconomic conditions and deviation from history, so it stands to reason insane inflation and higher interest rates were going to be part of the package.

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## flipstah

> I have a buddy who married a girl who made more than him. She turned out to be a bitch (or so I hear), and she chose to leave him. He's currently in the process of taking her to the cleaners.



Is she hot? 

Also, variable is a crapshoot; results are varied. Youll be laughing at this thread in 2-3 years.

I like fixed because I organize my socks by type.

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## 90_Shelby

> He's also shaped like a pie.



So that's why he has an electric bicycle!

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## Manhattan

Sorry to say this but buying last June was probably the bigger mistake than getting on a variable rate. With (a lot?) more rate hikes on the way the amount of mortgages people will be approved for is going way down - have a look at any online mortgage calculator and you'll be shocked at how little you qualify for today. Huge downward pressure on prices. Feels like we're somewhere in between complacency & denial in the housing market cycle...much more pain ahead. My 2 cents.

With all that being said if you plan to be in that house 10+ yrs your decision to buy and choosing to go with variable vs fixed will NOT make or break your financial situation.

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## suntan

This is why your home should always be looked at not as an investment but simply as the cost of shelter.

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## ExtraSlow

> This is why your home should always be looked at not as an investment but simply as the cost of shelter.



Unkes you can heloc your house, then it's a stonk.

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## ercchry

60% TDS/GDS and 35yr am is a thing… not lenders where most of you will want your mortgage to be, but hell… still not as bad as no proof of income and interest only lenders  :ROFL!:

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## kobe tai

> Die with the most debt possible. YOLO



This is the way and my plan now hat I lost all my money in stonks

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## 03ozwhip

> As luck would have it, it was literally immediately before interest rates started their climb. I think it was around February? May have been early March?
> 
> 
> 
> Sorry... yes. Will change my OP.



That's why I ask, because nearly everyone here always says variable lol

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## msommers

> This is why your home should always be looked at not as an investment but simply as the cost of shelter.



Bingo.

I was kind of against owning a house and leaning towards renting, honestly because Couch Potato Podcast showed it's not a great place to park a large percentage of your money.

Then my FIL got booted from his rental house after 5+ years because the landlords were cashing in on the housing spike and had to suddenly move. It became blindingly obvious that raising a family where that could happen is a factor I want to completely avoid. So we bought, no regrets.

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## Misterman

> ...if only you had a time machine to go back to that time.
> 
> If some of you recall, I came on here asking the peeps if they felt we should go with a variable or fixed on our renewal. Almost 100% of everyone said variable, which turned out to be a poor choice. But honestly, who would have expected this much of a hike so soon? That hasn't happened in decades.



Literally anyone paying any attention at all saw this coming. The only argument I saw from anyone suggesting to go variable was "derp, historically............." Meanwhile, those of us in the not almost 100% camp, had heaps of information to back up exactly why this situation was coming. 

Glad I followed the data and locked in at 2.5% Last year with the looming rate hikes forecasted to start in March this year. 





> Is what it is tbh. Sometimes in life you'll come out ahead and sometimes you'll come out behind. I, like many dumb dumbs, believed the BoC when they stated, repeatedly, that rates would remain low through 2023 or 2024.



Just should've paid attention to the rest of what they said, like that rates would go up in March. Technically they're right about rates remaining low, when averaged over all time, 5% is still technically low in some sense. But inflation is almost 10%, so there's a long way to go on rate hikes yet. 





> Bingo.
> 
> I was kind of against owning a house and leaning towards renting, honestly because Couch Potato Podcast showed it's not a great place to park a large percentage of your money.
> 
> Then my FIL got booted from his rental house after 5+ years because the landlords were cashing in on the housing spike and had to suddenly move. It became blindingly obvious that raising a family where that could happen is a factor I want to completely avoid. So we bought, no regrets.




For us, we were definitely cashing out our equity in our current home. But the question was between buying a cheap home or renting until the market correction hits. I also couldn't stomach the idea of some landlord forcing us into a move when I have a baby/toddler at home. So we were very strategic about buying. Bought a relatively entry level detached house, in a new neighborhood. Gambling that the increased equity from completing landscaping, the neighborhood being finished, schools and shopping centers being built nearby. Will offset the equity loss from the market downturn.

And realistically it's almost a moot point, because I'd have to pay at least in rent what my mortgage payment is. If I spend $25k/yr on rent, then essentially I can lose 25k/yr in home value and come out dead even. Unless the market crashed so hard that the bank tried to call in the loan, I don't see a huge downside either way.

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## suntan

Anybody upside down on their house will be ass raped when the renewal comes. Banks are rock hard over it happening.

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## Buster

> Literally anyone paying any attention at all saw this coming.



Bullshit. You didn't "know" any more then than you "know" now.

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## 88CRX

> Sorry to say this but buying last June was probably the bigger mistake than getting on a variable rate. With (a lot?) more rate hikes on the way the amount of mortgages people will be approved for is going way down - have a look at any online mortgage calculator and you'll be shocked at how little you qualify for today. Huge downward pressure on prices. Feels like we're somewhere in between complacency & denial in the housing market cycle...much more pain ahead. My 2 cents.
> 
> With all that being said if you plan to be in that house 10+ yrs your decision to buy and choosing to go with variable vs fixed will NOT make or break your financial situation.



Did someone say dip? Buy the dip.

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## Team_Mclaren

> Bullshit. You didn't "know" any more then than you "know" now.



QFT. Love that we see Buster's inner caring and asshole side all in one thread.  :Love:  :Love: 

I've always done Fixed, 2/3 is due in 2024+ at 2.x so those are coming out ahead for sure, one is due this Dec and for sure getting fucked on the next term. But it is what it is... not much I can do

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## Misterman

> Bullshit. You didn't "know" any more then than you "know" now.



Correct, I'm equally as aware now as I was back then. 

If you want to get hung up on the context of the word "Know", that's a you problem. I certainly don't have a crystal ball, but there was an extremely high level of certainty on the trajectory the market has taken.

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## killramos

If you really knew the market outcomes of the past year there were a lot smarter choices you could have made than just locking in your mortgage.

You made an out of the market guess based on innuendo and low brow theory, contrary to what leagues of people smarter than you forecast, and got lucky.

Do not conflate luck with intelligence or clairvoyance. Its a bad look. Just typical confirmation bias we expect from you regarding everything you spew.

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## bjstare

> If you really “knew” the market outcomes of the past year there were a lot smarter choices you could have made than just locking in your mortgage.
> 
> You made an out of the market guess based on innuendo and low brow theory, contrary to what leagues of people smarter than you forecast, and got lucky.



Haha took the words from my mouth. If it was such a certainty, he should have been yoloing his life savings into derivatives and retiring on the beach.

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## suntan

> If you really “knew” the market outcomes of the past year there were a lot smarter choices you could have made than just locking in your mortgage.
> 
> You made an out of the market guess based on innuendo and low brow theory, contrary to what leagues of people smarter than you forecast, and got lucky.
> 
> Do not conflate luck with intelligence or clairvoyance. It’s a bad look. Just typical confirmation bias we expect from you regarding everything you spew.



I have no free money. Also my company got its ass kicked.

My MAW104 did waaaaay better than VBAL/XBAL though.

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## sabad66

Re reading the thread from January is interesting

https://forums.beyond.ca/threads/415...e-Renewal-WWBD

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## zechs

I went variable, and I'm happy with it. Can sell my place whenever I want with minimal penalty. Interest rate was locked at 2.54% fixed for 5 years, then went .99% variable, then went 1.39% variable and has rose to 3.49% or something like that.

People losing their shit over a 2% increase on their mortgage interest rate are ridiculous. Unless people live so staggeringly close to the edge of their finances that it's absurd, it should have no material effect on people. And if $500 a month does, you should be on fixed. Even then, as Buster/Suntan always say, the banks are smarter than us, fixed prices this in and they'll get their money anyways with the rates they offer.

$600k house, 1.5% to 3.5% is an extra $500 a month. That's an extra day of work. WGAF

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## suntan

> $600k house, 1.5% to 3.5% is an extra $500 a month. That's an extra day of work. WGAF



Damn 7.2 life$tyle.

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## ExtraSlow

Pointed out above, but there are benefits to variable beyond the rate, particularly when compared to fixed rate at a bank, which usually have horrendous penalties that can cost you way more than small differences in payment or rate.

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## max_boost

> I went variable, and I'm happy with it. Can sell my place whenever I want with minimal penalty. Interest rate was locked at 2.54% fixed for 5 years, then went .99% variable, then went 1.39% variable and has rose to 3.49% or something like that.
> 
> People losing their shit over a 2% increase on their mortgage interest rate are ridiculous. Unless people live so staggeringly close to the edge of their finances that it's absurd, it should have no material effect on people. And if $500 a month does, you should be on fixed. Even then, as Buster/Suntan always say, the banks are smarter than us, fixed prices this in and they'll get their money anyways with the rates they offer.
> 
> $600k house, 1.5% to 3.5% is an extra $500 a month. That's an extra day of work. WGAF



The interest rate 
Its just back to when I bought my first house 17 years ago lol I feel old  :Cry:

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## Buster

> If you really “knew” the market outcomes of the past year there were a lot smarter choices you could have made than just locking in your mortgage.
> 
> You made an out of the market guess based on innuendo and low brow theory, contrary to what leagues of people smarter than you forecast, and got lucky.
> 
> Do not conflate luck with intelligence or clairvoyance. It’s a bad look. Just typical confirmation bias we expect from you regarding everything you spew.



I rarely say this but...

Couldn't have said it better myself.

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## Darkane

> I rarely say this but...
> 
> Couldn't have said it better myself.



I like that he used Low Brow. 

I used High Brow to describe a coworker of mine and how he gets my humour. A few people showed puzzled expressions.

Haha

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## suntan

> Re reading the thread from January is interesting
> 
> https://forums.beyond.ca/threads/415...e-Renewal-WWBD



I mean the rates still aren’t that bad in Canada. The USA seems to be a different story.

One thing I didn’t realize is how many people really are on the financial precipice.

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## Buster

> I mean the rates still aren’t that bad in Canada. The USA seems to be a different story.
> 
> One thing I didn’t realize is how many people really are on the financial precipice.



I'm going to enjoy the crash

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## max_boost

Thought the banks were being extra careful this go around to prevent catastrophe

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## littledan

I just renewed in April @ 3.34%. I'm very risk averse so don't mind paying marginally more during times of very low interest rate because the downside risk was just too unknown.

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## Misterman

> If you really knew the market outcomes of the past year there were a lot smarter choices you could have made than just locking in your mortgage.
> 
> You made an out of the market guess based on innuendo and low brow theory, contrary to what leagues of people smarter than you forecast, and got lucky.
> 
> Do not conflate luck with intelligence or clairvoyance. Its a bad look. Just typical confirmation bias we expect from you regarding everything you spew.



I didn't "know" for absolute certain. And you're being clearly pedantic at this point to even claim that, or to say I should've YOLO'd all my shit. 
I DID make smarter choices. I cleaned out the equity from my big ass mcmansion, and moved to a place with limited downside potential. Getting control of my investments, and moving everything to a Short S&P500 ETF. 

People smarter than me? You don't say! Wonder where I got my "clairvoyance" from? I'm not trying to paint myself as some genius market reader, I simply paid attention to the smart people that were predicting all this mess and validated whether their data was correct or not. And likewise I also listened to the Fed and other supposed "experts" that were saying the opposite, and was able to confirm the things they were saying were flat out lies. The weird thing here is that you're trying to paint me as a lucky idiot for doing very basic due diligence and acting in accordance with simple fundamentals. While most of you went against experts and did zero DD at all. Ignorance to economic data is not the same as being unlucky. It's not like a few of us here weren't sharing the data we were being made aware of quite a long time ago. If nobody else wanted to even google a few things to see if what we were saying was accurate or not, that's a choice.

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## Buster

You're missing the point.

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## Disoblige

Let's all hold hands and kumbaya.
We all have a roof over our heads mmkay? *sips drink*

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## suntan

Beyond knife fight is the best bet.

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## killramos

> Let's all hold hands and kumbaya.
> We all have a roof over our heads mmkay? *sips drink*



You clearly haven’t spent much time in the camping thread

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## ExtraSlow

Take the mushrooms camping, you'll feel the brotherly love and won't worry about past mortgage decisions.

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## max_boost

You’ll even rescue your father from the belly of the whale and transcend your life.

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## ExtraSlow

> You’ll even rescue your father from the belly of the whale and transcend your life.



I ran out before THAT happened.

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## max_boost

The og way. Get mortgage, house goes up, get heloc, use heloc to pay off original mortgage. Ive been living the variable way of life since day one (minus a few years of debt free and then realized life is better when in debt) 

*this is not financial advice*

- - - Updated - - -




> I ran out before THAT happened.



Bruh but you achieved the goal of visiting your ancestors and reaching enlightenment

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## ercchry

> The og way. Get mortgage, house goes up, get heloc, use heloc to pay off original mortgage. I’ve been living the variable way of life since day one (minus a few years of debt free and then realized life is better when in debt) 
> 
> *this is not financial advice*
> 
> - - - Updated - - -
> 
> 
> 
> Bruh but you achieved the goal of visiting your ancestors and reaching enlightenment



…. patiently awaiting you to post in the everyday car pics thread  :ROFL!:

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## phreezee

You guys missed the signs

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## Misterman

> You guys missed the signs



See! I told you the experts have been weighing in.

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## Kloubek

Up .75% today alone.

I'm going to guess by this point there are people who are not just sweating, but on the verge of losing their homes if some haven't already lost them.

Could be complete carnage if this continues. This is one way to correct housing prices for certain...

----------


## suntan

Amazing that a 3.75% rate is going to destroy people, but hey here we are.

----------


## JRSC00LUDE

> Up .75% today alone.
> 
> I'm going to guess by this point there are people who are not just sweating, but on the verge of losing their homes if some haven't already lost them.
> 
> Could be complete carnage if this continues. This is one way to correct housing prices for certain...



It's difficult, when the outcome of the last few years of decision making has been SO painfully obvious to millions of people, to not think it's an intentional result.

----------


## Buster

Central bankers are so retarded.

----------


## ExtraSlow

is it rich ontario senior citizens who will lose their home? Because that would be a benefit.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm on the full variable where my payment changes each time. Gives me a frowny face, but hey, yolo and yeet fam, as the kids say.

----------


## vengie

> Amazing that a 3.75% rate is going to destroy people, but hey here we are.



While I understand your thoughts on this, its a 3.75% rate ON TOP of the already staggering inflation.

Many lower income people are quite literally drowning and are being forced to take on more debt just to feed their families, which further perpetuates their plight.
Death by a thousand cuts.

Our government fucked up big time. Lets just hope people remember this pain when its time to go back to the polls.

----------


## killramos

- - - Updated - - -




> While I understand your thoughts on this, its a 3.75% rate ON TOP of the already staggering inflation.
> 
> Many lower income people are quite literally drowning and are being forced to take on more debt just to feed their families, which further perpetuates their plight.
> Death by a thousand cuts.
> 
> Our government fucked up big time. Lets just hope people remember this pain when its time to go back to the polls.



God damn Harper Era policies!

----------


## ExtraSlow

Agree that there are a lot of government decisions prior to this that have hurt the standard of living of voters. Voters don't like that, and they won't like this. Changes to standard of living happen at the margin of costs and income.

----------


## max_boost

Still another minimum .75+ to come right 

Rip everything

----------


## bjstare

Bring on the crash, baby. I'm trying to upgrade.

----------


## suntan

> While I understand your thoughts on this, its a 3.75% rate ON TOP of the already staggering inflation.
> 
> Many lower income people are quite literally drowning and are being forced to take on more debt just to feed their families, which further perpetuates their plight.
> Death by a thousand cuts.
> 
> Our government fucked up big time. Lets just hope people remember this pain when its time to go back to the polls.



Inflation is always countered with rate hikes. Always. This is the way.

We just got so used to 0.25% prime that people that actually thought that $1mm mortgage was affordable.

----------


## JfuckinC

> Bring on the crash, baby. I'm trying to upgrade.



There's a house for sale right now i want, but i dont wanna get in at this rate or price so im hoping it crashes asap and i can snipe it haha... lets go crash!! I'll keep renting and waiting

----------


## suntan

House prices are sticky.

Since people are so leveraged, there is a price floor. Lenders will block sales if they lose money on them.

Supply will dry up. People have to live somewhere, so they'll just stay where they are.

----------


## max_boost

Were you guys brave during the covid crash. I wanna be brave too but I get scared when the crash actually happens lol

----------


## suntan

I was very brave, I stayed inside my house for weeks on end and wore masks even over my eyes.

----------


## vengie

> Inflation is always countered with rate hikes. Always. This is the way.
> 
> We just got so used to 0.25% prime that people that actually thought that $1mm mortgage was affordable.



Its not the people with $1mm mortgages that I care about.
Its the lower income, hard working people getting slaughtered by poor policy.

It hits close to home. I grew up lower income and watched my parents claw their way to prosperity. 
They have some wild stories of how they were dollars away from not being able to put food on the table growing up. Its humbling.

----------


## ExtraSlow

I don't try to time the housing market, and I don't invest in the housing market. 

I did get wickedly lucky with timing of a big upgrade back in the global financial crisis. I was going from a cheap starter home and could afford a slightly nicer "move-up" house because of the market conditions. That move was based on a change in family size thought, not any kind of smarts on my part. Also haven't moved out of that "move up" house in the 14 years since then. Maybe move in the next decade or so, we'll see.

----------


## max_boost

> I don't try to time the housing market, and I don't invest in the housing market. 
> 
> I did get wickedly lucky with timing of a big upgrade back in the global financial crisis. I was going from a cheap starter home and could afford a slightly nicer "move-up" house because of the market conditions. That move was based on a change in family size thought, not any kind of smarts on my part. Also haven't moved out of that "move up" house in the 14 years since then. Maybe move in the next decade or so, we'll see.



I remember this

- - - Updated - - -




> Its not the people with $1mm mortgages that I care about.
> Its the lower income, hard working people getting slaughtered by poor policy.
> 
> It hits close to home. I grew up lower income and watched my parents claw their way to prosperity. 
> They have some wild stories of how they were dollars away from not being able to put food on the table growing up. Its humbling.



Yes sir

- - - Updated - - -




> I was very brave, I stayed inside my house for weeks on end and wore masks even over my eyes.



My hero

----------


## ExtraSlow

Beyond is basically my daily journal.

----------


## ExtraSlow

Can totally relate to growing up poor. There were a few lean years in my childhood too. I think it's good for kids to understand a little about the value of money and the process of price comparison. Made my kid put back a $12 bottle of body wash this week and let them pick a 2 for $6 one instead.

----------


## Cagare

> Were you guys brave during the covid crash. I wanna be brave too but I get scared when the crash actually happens lol



Quite brave. I started looking 2 months into Covid as I was expecting a moderate level of blood in the street. There was, we ending up buying a property for an excellent price. Where we fell down is not getting the build of our home started soon enough, so it's somewhat balanced out, maybe not perfectly in our favour. I cannot imagine going and buying a lot at current market prices and paying the build costs on top.

We did variable on the build. I am a little stressed in the short term, but I am okay with it in the long term. It just means cutting back in some other areas and maybe doing things slower than we originally planned.

----------


## dirtsniffer

I think, the hardest hit people will be in the largest cities, vancouver, toronto, etc.. And fuck them, you get what you vote for.

----------


## suntan

> Its not the people with $1mm mortgages that I care about.
> Its the lower income, hard working people getting slaughtered by poor policy.
> 
> It hits close to home. I grew up lower income and watched my parents claw their way to prosperity. 
> They have some wild stories of how they were dollars away from not being able to put food on the table growing up. Its humbling.



Oh absolutely. Inflation is a killer. Our governments forgot all the lessons. Ah well.

- - - Updated - - -




> I think, the hardest hit people will be in the largest cities, vancouver, toronto, etc.. And fuck them, you get what you vote for.



Guaranteed the Liberals will come up with some plan to bail them out.

- - - Updated - - -




> Can totally relate to growing up poor. There were a few lean years in my childhood too. I think it's good for kids to understand a little about the value of money and the process of price comparison. Made my kid put back a $12 bottle of body wash this week and let them pick a 2 for $6 one instead.



I would have disowned that kid.

----------


## ExtraSlow

I've looked into it, hard to do until they turn 16.

----------


## BokCh0y

> In all seriousness, regret is a tough thing to deal with. So stop it.
> 
> People regret outcomes, which is a dangerous game to play. What you need to do is assess your decision making at the time. Did you make the best possible decision with the information that you had? If you fucked up the decision, then feel free to regret that. If you regret the outcomes, then you're just being a dope who doesn't understand that life is probabilistic and uncertain. People who are willing to embrace the probabilistic and use that as a context for their decision-making get ahead in life. People who demand certainty in life - let's call them "babies" - are eventually going to be at the mercy of those that understand that certainty is fundamentally an impossible goal and to chase it is a fool's errand which will only cost them money and opportunities. You must make predictions in life, we all do it all of the time. However, it is worth distinguishing between situations where predictions may have some utility for you, and situations which are inherently unknowable and thus inherently unpredictable. 
> 
> Did you make the wrong decision with your variable rate? No, you did not. Did you get the best possible outcome? No you did not. Both of these statements can be true.
> 
> Assess your current situation, determine what you can now predict based on your current information. Don't be tricked into thinking you can now know a future unknowable because of your past painful experience and work the current situation as best you can. Or...lapse into being a little bitch like 99% of the population out there who is owned by people who are more evolved in their epistemology.



Imma plus rep you when I've spread some love and likely that will be to that penis is mighty dude to keep you and him on top of each other.

----------


## spike98

> Amazing that a 3.75% rate is going to destroy people, but hey here we are.



At the rates lowest, most high ratio mortgage qualified at 4.25%-4.5%. If this is sinking people, its their own damn fault for over leveraging themselves.

----------


## ThePenIsMightier

> Imma plus rep you when I've spread some love and likely that will be to that penis is mighty dude to keep you and him on top of each other.



*Jumps in.
Imma _reverse cowgirl on top_ kind of guy!

----------


## suntan

> At the rates lowest, most high ratio mortgage qualified at 4.25%-4.5%. If this is sinking people, its their own damn fault for over leveraging themselves.



https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showt...hp?t=181696783

So 800K mortgage?

----------


## zechs

> https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showt...hp?t=181696783
> 
> So 800K mortgage?






> My rate was 1.8% to start and the payments stay the same till rates reach 4.3%. Now after this 0.75% increase, they are above that since we've had multiple rate increases this year, so my trigger rate is reached and my payments will change accordingly because Im basically paying all interest at this point.



What kind of shenanigans is this? Is this real/a thing in Canada??

----------


## spike98

> https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showt...hp?t=181696783
> 
> So 800K mortgage?



Doesn't matter the amount. Its relative to the household income. If someone barely scraping by the stress test buys the maximum amount offered, then rolls out for a track hawk. They are fucked. That is the whole reason for the stress test. Over leveraging themselves after the purchase is their own damn fault.

----------


## ExtraSlow

> lol at mortgagecels
> 
> rentcels rejoice!



This.

----------


## max_boost

I blame the banks

----------


## suntan

> What kind of shenanigans is this? Is this real/a thing in Canada??



Yup, that's how most variable rate mortgages work in Canada.

Where are you located?

- - - Updated - - -




> Doesn't matter the amount. Its relative to the household income. If someone barely scraping by the stress test buys the maximum amount offered, then rolls out for a track hawk. They are fucked. That is the whole reason for the stress test. Over leveraging themselves after the purchase is their own damn fault.



Just trying to figure out how much his mortgage is.

----------


## killramos

What are you all students or something?

----------


## vengie

> https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showt...hp?t=181696783
> 
> So 800K mortgage?



That is pretty much exactly how I expected a thread on a body building forum to go.
What a bunch of losers, yikes.

----------


## jutes

Recession car deals thread should get some more posts with people selling their toys?

----------


## msommers

People will think they can sell their 5 year old Corolla over 2023 MSRP. And they might be crazy enough to be right LOL

----------


## riander5

> https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showt...hp?t=181696783
> 
> So 800K mortgage?



Haha wow some gem comments in there... 

'People have nowhere to live so it's either becoming a rentcel or a landchad. Pick one op.'

- - - Updated - - -




> What kind of shenanigans is this? Is this real/a thing in Canada??



This is real. I actually just found out about it a while ago when a buddy of mine over extended himself on a house. I think if there is one more rate increase he is about to get fucked like the bodybuilding bros... a 50% increase in payments or more :|

----------


## 88CRX

Buy the dip!

----------


## msommers

On a $500K mortgage (not PP, but mortgage):

2.0% = $2,117.26/month

5.9% = $3,169.37/month

Variable discounted (via RateHub) 5-year rates since 2006:

----------


## zechs

> Yup, that's how most variable rate mortgages work in Canada.
> 
> Where are you located?
> 
> - - - Updated - - -
> 
> 
> 
> Just trying to figure out how much his mortgage is.



My variable for the past two years, the payment has changed with interest changes. Just in Edmonton, but that is with First National and Nesto.

Never paid attention originally when on a 5 year fixed. Once I flipped to variable (first with National, and then with Nesto) both have sent letters in the mail regularily.

I feel like I asked First National if there was such a thing (flat payment, principle/interest amount changes depending on rate) and they acted like the idea was insane.

So who knows, I'll take your word for it, interesting to know.

----------


## suntan

You have an adjustable rate mortgage, that's why. Not a variable rate mortgage.

----------


## JfuckinC

ELI5: what will bring the rates down?

----------


## suntan

Recession.

----------


## zechs

> You have an adjustable rate mortgage, that's why. Not a variable rate mortgage.



Interesting, I just went to double check and my statement lists it as adjustable even though all email conversations and documents refer to variable.

I may stick with adjustable anyways as f'ing with the principle payments seems like a bad decision, but it wouldn't be the first time a mortgage company cocked something up.

----------


## tirebob

Our old 2014 base model F150 that I paid just over 19K for brand new as s shop runaround truck was traded in for 15K (after the fact of the deal already being made too) and put on the lot for 21K recently so I think anything is possible lol

----------


## vengie

> ELI5: what will bring the rates down?



Economy crashing and burning.

----------


## JfuckinC

> Recession.






> Economy crashing and burning.



I don't want a lower rate that bad... haha maybe things can just meet in the middle somewhere..

----------


## suntan

> Interesting, I just went to double check and my statement lists it as adjustable even though all email conversations and documents refer to variable.
> 
> I may stick with adjustable anyways as f'ing with the principle payments seems like a bad decision, but it wouldn't be the first time a mortgage company cocked something up.



As far as I can tell, the non-big bank mortgage lenders only offer ARMs, despite their usage of the "variable" terminology.

----------


## tirebob

> I don't want a lower rate that bad... haha maybe things can just meet in the middle somewhere..



Can you just lock into a 1 or 2 year mortgage betting on a future drop and then renew sans penalty?

----------


## ExtraSlow

Get a 2 year ARM or VRM and profit? wait . . . .

----------


## killramos

Here we go again  :ROFL!:

----------


## zechs

> As far as I can tell, the non-big bank mortgage lenders only offer ARMs, despite their usage of the "variable" terminology.



Indeed, that is the response that I've received, an adjustable mortgage "is" a variable mortgage.

Not that it really bothers me any, a person is just screwing themselves by paying down less principle. The man will get paid one way or another.

A true variable is nice at 10% inflation though.

----------


## Misterman

> Amazing that a 3.75% rate is going to destroy people, but hey here we are.



More like 5%, but the numbers aren't important I guess. But yes of course rising interest wrecks people. Virtually everyone buys the top end of what the bank says they're approved for. So if you did that at 1.5%, fucking rights 5% is going to hurt. Especially when your groceries and gas have doubled in price. 

If you're saying it's amazing that so many people are stupid enough to buy the upper end of their approval and not leave a dollar of their income left on the table for a rainy day. Then yeah, totally agree. 






> House prices are sticky.
> 
> Since people are so leveraged, there is a price floor. Lenders will block sales if they lose money on them.
> 
> Supply will dry up. People have to live somewhere, so they'll just stay where they are.



 How do you go about "just staying in your home". when your renewal increases your payment above what your income is?

----------


## pheoxs

Most 5 year fixed are at 4.5-5.25% right now depending on the discount. That is the highest it's been since 2009 which is quite crazy to see, especially coming off record lows last year and then inflation out of control raising other costs of living.

I think the next few months will see a pretty huge tank in house sales, a lot of people buying now would've still had rate holds from the spring / summer much lower than current market rates. If you have a <3% lock in rate, it's a no brainer to try and purchase now before that expires.

----------


## Xtrema

> If you have a <3% lock in rate, it's a no brainer to try and purchase now before that expires.



I thought <3% rate has mostly expired back in May/June.

----------


## vengie

Well my renewal is in 11 months. 
Let's hope rates chill out. 

If not I'll likely do a very short term fixed

----------


## pheoxs

> I thought <3% rate has mostly expired back in May/June.



Some lenders do 120 day rate holds and there's one or two that do longer, up to 180 day holds. You get a worse rate, but a rate from March even plus 1% is still better than todays rates.

----------


## Xtrema

> How do you go about "just staying in your home". when your renewal increases your payment above what your income is?



New: $300K 2% 25yr amort = $1270/mth
Renew: $300K (assuming house price adjusted down 10%) 5% 20yr amort = $1971/mth


5% 25 yr amort = $1744.


And assuming you don't need CMHC, you can extend that to 30 years and drop the payment to $1414.

Still cheaper than renting the same class of houses/townhouses.

So there are ways to adjust your budget to stay in your home. Worst case you just downside and move. A roof over your head is pretty cheap in Calgary as 2bed 900sqft is under $300k. The key is to stay employed which isn't that hard for now.

----------


## suntan

> How do you go about "just staying in your home". when your renewal increases your payment above what your income is?



There are people that have to sell and those that want to live somewhere else. It's the latter that'll just hang around and wait another 5 years before trying again.

The percentage of homes that are in foreclosure is always very small. The bank will be very flexible in extracting more interest from you.

----------


## kenny

> How do you go about "just staying in your home". when your renewal increases your payment above what your income is?



The lender will four square you and let you keep home. Lower your payment, extend the term, and rake in even more $.

----------


## suntan

And raise your rate, because you're more of a risk.

That's why lenders are just salivating at this situation.

----------


## riander5

I always have regret when I think of ways I could have had more $$ in my pocket than I do now

----------


## ExtraSlow

I guess the secret is to pay off your mortgage! Let's get at it boys.

----------


## killramos

> I guess the secret is to be able to pay off your mortgage when you want! Let's get at it boys.



FTFY

Never be in a position where your mortgage could sink you. But instead use the leverage as a tool.

----------


## ercchry

> And raise your rate, because you're more of a risk.
> 
> That's why lenders are just salivating at this situation.



I think it’s more profitable to have clients getting shuffled from lender to lender and collecting more and more loans and also receiving large payout penalties than what’s happening now. Keep in mind that securitized loans are also more profitable than uninsured garbage that’s stuck on the books with poor repayment

----------


## Buster

> I guess the secret is to pay off your mortgage! Let's get at it boys.



you're still faced with the question of whether or not this is the best use of spare capital

----------


## max_boost

Is paying off your mortgage overrated

----------


## Buster

> Is paying off your mortgage overrated



It can be.

----------


## Cagare

> It can be.



Has there been a time in history where the mortgage lending rate has exceeded inflation? I think when I got my first mortgage nearly 20 years ago that it was. Do you just consider that, or do you consider the potential increase/decrease in the value of the underlying asset instead? Seems like that would be a lot more volatile.

----------


## ExtraSlow

I'm sure I wrote this elsewhere, but it's my opinion that for a "regular" individual, paying down your mortgage has a very attractive risk-adjusted return. Two main reasons. 1) there is no downside risk like there are in many other investments and 2) there is no tax on the savings, unlike potential taxable capital gains or other investment income. 

Now sure, it's boring as hell and it may not be the single perfect highest return choice you can make, but most regular people don't choose that either. They do something suboptimal or excessively risky. Boring is good.

----------


## max_boost

We are not regular individuals

----------


## 90_Shelby

> I'm sure I wrote this elsewhere, but it's my opinion that for a "regular" individual, paying down your mortgage has a very attractive risk-adjusted return. Two main reasons. 1) there is no downside risk like there are in many other investments and 2) there is no tax on the savings, unlike potential taxable capital gains or other investment income. 
> 
> Now sure, it's boring as hell and it may not be the single perfect highest return choice you can make, but most regular people don't choose that either. They do something suboptimal or excessively risky. Boring is good.



This.

Step 1: Pay off house
Step 2: Buy Trackhawk
Step 3: Eliminate risk of driving a builder grade Ridgeline
Step 4: Buy a 911?

----------


## max_boost

Real ballers drive 911s  :Pimpin': 
Porsche night was dope

----------


## 90_Shelby

> Real ballers drive 911s 
> Porsche night was dope



Mine was not even noticeable in the sea of colourful GT cars. 

Back on topic. I would still prefer a variable mortgage.

----------


## riander5

> I guess the secret is to pay off your mortgage! Let's get at it boys.



Decent book if you are battling with the idea of interest rates vs investments and like the K.I.S.S method

https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/sh...path-to-wealth

Suntan might even approve... might

----------


## The Cosworth

> On a $500K mortgage (not PP, but mortgage):
> 
> 2.0% = $2,117.26/month
> 
> 5.9% = $3,169.37/month
> 
> Variable discounted (via RateHub) 5-year rates since 2006:



I don't care who you are, a 50% increase in your mortgage is at least an adjustment. I am sure glad I am on fixed and could absorb that 1k if I had to. I can imagine many who can't.

----------


## max_boost

> Mine was not even noticeable in the sea of colourful GT cars. 
> 
> Back on topic. I would still prefer a variable mortgage.



Variable for life. I don’t like being tied down

----------


## JRSC00LUDE

> I don’t like being tied down



Not what your tinder says.

----------


## suntan

> This.
> 
> Step 1: Pay off house
> Step 2: Buy Trackhawk
> Step 3: Eliminate risk of driving a builder grade Ridgeline
> Step 4: Buy a 911?



Get really confused at the Costco gas bar.

----------


## Buster

> Not what your tinder says.



You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to JRSC00LUDE again.

----------


## Misterman

> Well my renewal is in 11 months. 
> Let's hope rates chill out. 
> 
> If not I'll likely do a very short term fixed



 I would probably do variable at that point based on current outlook. Would have to reassess at the time, but one would expect the hikes to be almost done with by then. So then you can just ride the variable rate down from there, and it's a cheap remortgage penalty if rates get low enough to just refinance the whole thing.

----------


## Misterman

> There are people that have to sell and those that want to live somewhere else. It's the latter that'll just hang around and wait another 5 years before trying again.
> 
> The percentage of homes that are in foreclosure is always very small. The bank will be very flexible in extracting more interest from you.



And there is a lot that have renewals coming with no equity in their home, that have no choice but to refinance at a rate that makes their mortgage unaffordable now. I don't know how bad it hurts your credit to owe CMHC a bunch of cash that was upside down on your home at it's new market value which is lower than when you bought it? 






> The lender will four square you and let you keep home. Lower your payment, extend the term, and rake in even more $.



And this is the best possibility to hope for. Because any thing else means a lot of people lose their home, which means the market tumbles even farther.

----------


## suntan

> And there is a lot that have renewals coming with no equity in their home, that have no choice but to refinance at a rate that makes their mortgage unaffordable now. I don't know how bad it hurts your credit to owe CMHC a bunch of cash that was upside down on your home at it's new market value which is lower than when you bought it?



Why would the lender do that? They want to squeeze you as much as possible. They'll just change the amortization length, which apparently is still possible.

----------


## ercchry

If you have “CMHC” aka mortgage insurance, you can transfer your loan to any lender, value be damned

----------


## suntan

Even better!

----------


## max_boost

> Not what your tinder says.



 :Love:   :Love:

----------


## suntan

> 



What does your grindr profile say?

----------


## dirtsniffer

This is the bottom

----------


## prae

> Well my renewal is in 11 months. 
> Let's hope rates chill out. 
> 
> If not I'll likely do a very short term fixed



If you think that rates will return to sub 3% 5yr fixed this lifetime; think again homie https://youtu.be/Wi_nFz1CJSI?t=2550

----------


## vengie

Fine.
New plan. 
Go beast mode and earn enough commission in the next 11 months to pay out my mortgage.

----------


## ExtraSlow

> Fine.
> New plan. 
> Go beast mode and earn enough commission in the next 11 months to pay out my mortgage.



Now ya talking!

----------


## Buster

> Fine.
> New plan. 
> Go beast mode and earn enough commission in the next 11 months to pay out my mortgage.



dooooo it

----------


## max_boost

> Fine.
> New plan. 
> Go beast mode and earn enough commission in the next 11 months to pay out my mortgage.



And then heloc it and buy super car 

The max_boost way

----------


## Misterman

> Why would the lender do that? They want to squeeze you as much as possible. They'll just change the amortization length, which apparently is still possible.



If the banks are suddenly in favor of bending the law in this circumstance on a huge number of loans, then sure maybe we skate through this without much headache. Doesn't really fit with their track record, but hey, first time for everything!

----------


## suntan

Who’s bending the law?

No-recourse doesn’t exist anymore.

But if there’s job losses then all hell will break loose.

----------


## ercchry

> Who’s bending the law?
> 
> No-recourse doesn’t exist anymore.
> 
> But if there’s job losses then all hell will break loose.



No recourse still exists in Alberta for uninsurable loans… but yeah not a major part of the Canadian lending portfolio… will be interesting if Ontario actually causes some pain to CMHC for once. Real steep decline in appraised values over the last few months out that way. But it shot up so fast the only pain so far is to buyers in the past year or so

----------


## Buster

> No recourse still exists in Alberta for uninsurable loans… but yeah not a major part of the Canadian lending portfolio… will be interesting if Ontario actually causes some pain to CMHC for once. Real steep decline in appraised values over the last few months out that way. But it shot up so fast the only pain so far is to buyers in the past year or so



The dumb and greedy you mean.

----------


## suntan

> No recourse still exists in Alberta for uninsurable loans but yeah not a major part of the Canadian lending portfolio will be interesting if Ontario actually causes some pain to CMHC for once. Real steep decline in appraised values over the last few months out that way. But it shot up so fast the only pain so far is to buyers in the past year or so



I thought you could still walk away from the loan but now it affects your credit rating?

----------


## ercchry

> I thought you could still walk away from the loan but now it affects your credit rating?



Not sure how the credit use to work, I would think any jingle mail would still end in an M9 

No recourse isn’t really related… it is having the lender’s security ends at the property, that’s not the case for most people now, between the lender being able to recover any losses from other assets, and as well as the insurer (the loss is now split between the two). They basically won’t lose… well, till the whole thing topples (blood from a stone and all that)

----------


## Misterman

> The dumb and greedy you mean.



I'm not sure I'd classify people wanting to get in before they physically cannot afford something as greedy. Dumb yes, but not greedy.

----------


## suntan

> Not sure how the credit use to work, I would think any jingle mail would still end in an M9 
> 
> No recourse isn’t really related… it is having the lender’s security ends at the property, that’s not the case for most people now, between the lender being able to recover any losses from other assets, and as well as the insurer (the loss is now split between the two). They basically won’t lose… well, till the whole thing topples (blood from a stone and all that)



Apparently in the good ol' days you could walk away in 'berta and the lender could not affect your credit rating.

----------


## ercchry

> Apparently in the good ol' days you could walk away in 'berta and the lender could not affect your credit rating.



It’s also possible they just never reported to begin with, still lenders today that don’t. I would imagine that would have been a rather manual process back then… but I’m not old enough to know!

----------


## hurrdurr

Wish I would have locked in last year. Paying $660 more per month now since last year all to interest.

----------


## Rarasaurus

High Immigration and High rates will push Rental costs up. It is nice that energy is coming down now along with Inflation but these rate hikes will also fuel inflation.

----------


## suntan

Rental demand is up because people can't afford homes anymore.

Monetary inflation is simply a measure of the demand for money in relation to its supply.

You have to raise rates high enough for long enough that they lower inflation to a nominal rate.

Mmm, good times.

----------


## Xtrema

> I'm not sure I'd classify people wanting to get in before they physically cannot afford something as greedy. Dumb yes, but not greedy.



You need to look at it thru the lens of GTA and GVA. Tons of people on salary is trying to play the flip game with 2nd and 3rd mortgage who are now upside down. Those are dumb and greedy.

----------


## Buster

> I'm not sure I'd classify people wanting to get in before they physically cannot afford something as greedy. Dumb yes, but not greedy.



They expected to catch the wave up, and got FOMO.

that's pure greed.

----------


## suntan

> You need to look at it thru the lens of GTA and GVA. Tons of people on salary is trying to play the flip game with 2nd and 3rd mortgage who are now upside down. Those are dumb and greedy.



As long as they keep their main job they'll suffer but be okay eventually.

----------


## max_boost

It’s just money. It’s all good man.

----------


## Kloubek

> It’s just money. It’s all good man.



Something my mother taught me as a child when I was wailing about something bad happening:

"Will this affect your life in 5 years?" A few grand - probably not significantly, no. 

If this carries on for years, I could see a lot of people have it affect them at increasingly different levels.

----------


## suntan

> Something my mother taught me as a child when I was wailing about something bad happening:
> 
> "Will this affect your life in 5 years?" A few grand - probably not significantly, no. 
> 
> If this carries on for years, I could see a lot of people have it affect them at increasingly different levels.



Sub 1% prime is gone forever. You will never see it again in your lifetime. 

Fuck you might never see 2% again.

----------


## killramos

Yea that’s true. Right up until you do.

----------


## Misterman

> Sub 1% prime is gone forever. You will never see it again in your lifetime. 
> 
> Fuck you might never see 2% again.



Or more than likely this will be just another boom bust cycle we go through, rinse and repeat again in 10 years.

----------


## max_boost

yup. we old man. most of us have been through this lol

----------


## Kloubek

> Sub 1% prime is gone forever. You will never see it again in your lifetime. 
> 
> Fuck you might never see 2% again.



I don't think we can say "never". I'm guessing back in the early 80's when it was upwards of 20% they said something along the lines of "You'll never see a 2% interest rate in your lifetime". Yet, we all know what happened. Granted, that was 40 years ago... still inside a lifetime.  :Smilie: 

The market ebbs and flows, but sub 1% is certainly not the norm. I think a lot of people got lulled into a false sense of ability towards home ownership, without realizing that historically, they're probably looking at an average of around 8-9% prime during the course of the mortgage. For those of us on the tail end of their mortgage, it doesn't hurt as much. But I imagine for those who are currently house poor, there's some sweating going on...

----------


## suntan

The difference this time 'round is that money was given directly to the citizens. That stunt hasn't been tried in decades in non-banana republics, mostly because all it does is cause monetary devaluation rather than actually make the idiot masses richer.

Contrast this with QE, where the central back gives bond holders their money back or they're simply forced to accept lower yielding bonds to replace their current bonds. This keeps banks and other lenders as the gate keepers of that sweet, sweet central bank money.

----------


## suntan

> I don't think we can say "never". I'm guessing back in the early 80's when it was upwards of 20% they said something along the lines of "You'll never see a 2% interest rate in your lifetime". Yet, we all know what happened. Granted, that was 40 years ago... still inside a lifetime. 
> 
> The market ebbs and flows, but sub 1% is certainly not the norm. I think a lot of people got lulled into a false sense of ability towards home ownership, without realizing that historically, they're probably looking at an average of around 8-9% prime during the course of the mortgage. For those of us on the tail end of their mortgage, it doesn't hurt as much. But I imagine for those who are currently house poor, there's some sweating going on...



Are you like 20 or something? Because that's the only way you're going to see 2% again.

----------


## max_boost

Being a student is okay in this case right. No mortgage no problem. Just stay at home.

----------


## Buster

Can a mod please change the title of this fucking thread to "....ragrets..."

We're trying to run a civilization here.

----------


## 2Legit2Quit

This thread is full of lies and deceit, everyone on beyond is a baller and has no mortgage

----------


## Kloubek

> Are you like 20 or something? Because that's the only way you're going to see 2% again.



Lol. I wish. I'm just saying that I don't think we will have to wait so long to see such interest rates again. The rise was very quick, and although a decline is sure to be slower, I think we will see it a lot sooner than the decades it took to get to that point the first time.

----------


## vengie

> Sub 1% prime is gone forever. You will never see it again in your lifetime. 
> 
> Fuck you might never see 2% again.



Not with that attitude.

----------


## ercchry

> This thread is full of lies and deceit, everyone on beyond is a baller and has no mortgage



I don’t have a salary, just loans against my vast ownership of corporations  :dunno:

----------


## max_boost

> This thread is full of lies and deceit, everyone on beyond is a baller and has no mortgage



Ya man. Wassup what’s going on here lol thought everyone was debt free. I’m so confused

----------


## Manhattan

It could go either way. We could see a prolonged fight against inflation on the current path...people trying to outbid each other for finite supply of things. Or we could just as likely see rates stabilize to pre-covid levels because supply chain issues and money printing had a huge impact but supply chain will get fixed and people will eventually blow their stimmy cheques. What you're left with is technology leading to more deflation - all the tech toys we have now cost way less relative to incomes at any time prior because of technology advances. 

The same thing that leads to inflation & recession is also the cure. Govt raises rates to fight inflation leading to recession leading to unemployment leading to less spending. A business cycle.

People ALWAYS overreact to these things. The fear of it is human nature.

----------


## prae

Borrowing costs on our variable mortgage (had we borrowed what we were approved for) would have increased by well over 2k a month in the last year.

Anyone that bought Toronto- or Vancouver- priced real estate without significant equity must be feeling absolutely squeezed, especially when combined with CoL increases in groceries, fuel, etc.

Shit's wild. I'm not as worried about markets like Calgary but the price levels in Vancouver are just beyond my comprehension at these rates.

----------


## ExtraSlow

every time we think we have a new, stable, normal, we are wrong. Our ability to predict the future hasn't improved.

----------


## suntan

Inflation is sticky.

And deflation doesn't happen.

----------


## hks

> Inflation is sticky.
> 
> And deflation doesn't happen.



Probably mostly true. I paid almost $9 for a Mcd's breakfast meal this morning. Even if we get inflation back to its normal range, it's not like Mcd's is going to all of a sudden lower their prices.

----------


## Buster

> Probably mostly true. I paid almost $9 for a Mcd's breakfast meal this morning. Even if we get inflation back to its normal range, it's not like Mcd's is going to all of a sudden lower their prices.



Your impression of this situation is only modified by wages increasing

----------


## hks

> Your impression of this situation is only modified by wages increasing



Wage inflation is a bitch. It's a never ending cycle of people wanting higher wages and companies increasing the prices of things to offset those higher wages.
I'd still probably buy a sausage and egg meal for $15 though... :facepalm:

----------


## Misterman

> Wage inflation is a bitch. It's a never ending cycle of people wanting higher wages and companies increasing the prices of things to offset those higher wages.
> I'd still probably buy a sausage and egg meal for $15 though...



You have the cart before the horse there. But even worse is that market inflation happens at a greater rate than wage inflation. So you actually have decreasing wages in real terms.

----------


## Disoblige

> Probably mostly true. I paid almost $9 for a Mcd's breakfast meal this morning. Even if we get inflation back to its normal range, it's not like Mcd's is going to all of a sudden lower their prices.



That is why coupons lol.

But if one day coupon prices is a $9 breakfast, then gg.

----------


## max_boost

3.99 teen burgers

I love fast food coupons/specials or app deals lol

----------


## SilverRex

> 3.99 teen burgers
> 
> I love fast food coupons/specials or app deals lol



sadly its over, I was eating that practically daily last week.

----------


## Neil4Speed

> Probably mostly true. I paid almost $9 for a Mcd's breakfast meal this morning. Even if we get inflation back to its normal range, it's not like Mcd's is going to all of a sudden lower their prices.



They had a $5 coupon this week in the app...!

----------


## msommers

> sadly its over, I was eating that practically daily last week.



Sacrifices to get into a T8 S60. Well done

----------


## SilverRex

> Sacrifices to get into a T8 S60. Well done



lol its going to take more than fast food for that  :Wink:

----------


## The Cosworth

> That is why coupons lol.
> 
> But if one day coupon prices is a $9 breakfast, then gg.



I haven't been able to login to my mcdonalds app on iphone for about 6 months, removed it, tried off wifi, on wifi, POS....

----------


## ExtraSlow

McDicks app still going strong on android here bitches.

----------


## SilverRex

ima sucker for the Timmy's app trying to win my free coffee for a week during the NHL season. Did it once and a couple of close calls.

----------


## Brent.ff

McD app would be infinitely better if they would just make the damn food when I order, vs when at the store. Maybe Im using it wrong?

----------


## sabad66

> McD app would be infinitely better if they would just make the damn food when I order, vs when at the store. Maybe I’m using it wrong?



They have to cater to the lowest common denominator of people that can’t plan well. If they did this, guaranteed they would get a huge uptick in complaints about cold food because of people not timing it well.

----------


## killramos

Cold McDonald’s fries are no bueno

----------


## Buster

> Cold McDonald’s fries are no bueno



ya, whats up with that? Great fresh, but a steep decline.

----------


## Misterman

> Cold McDonald’s fries are no bueno



But somehow infinitely better than cold kfc fries

----------


## msommers

Looking at variable vs fixed rates, seems like the banks are anticipating rates to come down. Or at least is logical given that fixed and variable rates are so close right now

----------


## killramos

Well yea. Soon the narrative will need to pivot to digging ourselves out of the recession we are causing.

----------


## Disoblige

> But somehow infinitely better than cold kfc fries



No way. Kfc fries has more flavor so when cold it beats McDonald's.

----------


## Buster

I dont eat cold fries.

Dont be poor.

----------


## max_boost

I like that. Don’t be poor.  :Pimpin':  something 89coupe would say as well

----------


## ThePenIsMightier

89Coup is Buster's alt

----------


## riander5

> I like that. Don’t be poor.  something 89coupe would say as well



What is 'allowing' you people to stay poor?

- - - Updated - - -




> *89Cuck* is Buster's alt



edited

----------


## ExtraSlow

> What is 'allowing' you people to stay poor?



This.

----------


## Disoblige

> I dont eat cold fries.
> 
> Dont be poor.



It's not being poor. It's being lazy.

----------


## Xtrema

> It's not being poor. It's being lazy.



Bingo. Even if you got $ to Uber some fries to you, it's probably cold anyway. So you are back to where you are started and out $10.  :Big Grin: 

Hot fries are overated.

----------


## sabad66

> No way. Kfc fries has more flavor so when cold it beats McDonald's.



Kfc used to have some amazing gravy that could salvage cold fries. Their new gravy sucks balls so they gotta be hot and fresh imo.

----------


## suntan

wtf they changed their gravy. fuck life.

----------


## ercchry

> Looking at variable vs fixed rates, seems like the banks are anticipating rates to come down. Or at least is logical given that fixed and variable rates are so close right now



Or BoC overnight rate and the 1/5yr bond yields are similar

----------


## bjstare

> Or… BoC overnight rate and the 1/5yr bond yields are similar



Excuse me sir, this is the french fry thread.

----------


## Cagare

> Well yea. Soon the narrative will need to pivot to digging ourselves out of the recession we are causing. 
> Attachment 109017



The most fascinating thing about this past year is that it's the most rapid rise we have seen in interest rates in less than 1 year since we've had a central bank. Rates have gone up by a multiple of 13 times in 7 months from 0.25% to 3.25%. The worst we have seen in the past is about a quadrupling in approximately a year in 2010 after the economic crisis from 0.25 to 1%. Before that it was a doubling in the from 79 to 81.

What happened in each of these past cases is an approximate decline in rates at the same rate in which they increased. I understand that double of the rates that existed in the 70's and 80's is quite different because we are comparing above 10% then to below 1% now, but the affect is the same in terms of increasing costs on the public.

While increases were expected, I don't think they were expected at this pace. I wonder if the assumptions are true, that they will decline as quickly as they climbed? They aren't going back below 1% I wouldn't think though. 

I still believe that sometime in the next year that inflation target will get adjusted upward so that they can modulate the rate increases they are doing right now.

----------


## suntan

Inflation is sticky.

----------


## Cagare

> Inflation is sticky.



Historically speaking it's not super sticky. We've seen these types of rises and falls before.

I guess we also haven't seen this much money injected into the economy before either.

----------


## Rocket1k78

> Kfc used to have some amazing gravy that could salvage cold fries. Their new gravy sucks balls so they gotta be hot and fresh imo.



I always thought it was the location by us that watered down the gravy or something. Sucks they changed it

----------


## Misterman

> wtf they changed their gravy. fuck life.



Seemed like the same gravy when I slummed it with KFC a week ago.  :dunno:

----------


## Buster

> The most fascinating thing about this past year is that it's the most rapid rise we have seen in interest rates in less than 1 year since we've had a central bank. Rates have gone up by a multiple of 13 times in 7 months from 0.25% to 3.25%. The worst we have seen in the past is about a quadrupling in approximately a year in 2010 after the economic crisis from 0.25 to 1%. Before that it was a doubling in the from 79 to 81.
> 
> What happened in each of these past cases is an approximate decline in rates at the same rate in which they increased. I understand that double of the rates that existed in the 70's and 80's is quite different because we are comparing above 10% then to below 1% now, but the affect is the same in terms of increasing costs on the public.
> 
> While increases were expected, I don't think they were expected at this pace. I wonder if the assumptions are true, that they will decline as quickly as they climbed? They aren't going back below 1% I wouldn't think though. 
> 
> I still believe that sometime in the next year that inflation target will get adjusted upward so that they can modulate the rate increases they are doing right now.



The older I get and the more history I have in the Financial Services (tm) industry, the more I think that central bankers are ritards.

They're also becoming more ritarded at the same time.

----------


## Darkane

> It's not being poor. It's being lazy.



Arent they mutually exclusive? 

Potato, poh-tah-toe

----------


## suntan

> The older I get and the more history I have in the Financial Services (tm) industry, the more I think that central bankers are ritards.
> 
> They're also becoming more ritarded at the same time.



The BoC is often wrong. They tend to be too hawkish when raising rates. Then again they're too dovish when times are good.

----------


## TomcoPDR

> Kfc used to have some amazing gravy that could salvage cold fries. Their new gravy sucks balls so they gotta be hot and fresh imo.



Probably budget cuts causing reduction in duck fat in it

----------


## Buster

> The BoC is often wrong. They tend to be too hawkish when raising rates. Then again they're too dovish when times are good.



They just don't know what the fuck they are doing in general.

----------


## suntan

> They just don't know what the fuck they are doing in general.



David Dodge was the last decent one. At least he realized that inflation was a killer. He was still too hawkish though.

----------


## Misterman

> They just don't know what the fuck they are doing in general.



Is it that? Or is it that they take direction from the government for the most part(who we all know is actually full of retards), and then BoC/Fed step in hard to save the plane from it's death spiral before it crashes and burns?

Meanwhile these central planners all profit from massive corruption at the expense of us plebs whether things are going great or terrible. 

Once you realize they don't actually have any desire to make things good for the middle class, it all starts to make more sense.

----------


## Buster

> Is it that? Or is it that they take direction from the government for the most part(who we all know is actually full of retards), and then BoC/Fed step in hard to save the plane from it's death spiral before it crashes and burns?
> 
> Meanwhile these central planners all profit from massive corruption at the expense of us plebs whether things are going great or terrible. 
> 
> Once you realize they don't actually have any desire to make things good for the middle class, it all starts to make more sense.



Yes, MMT is just an excuse to officially comingle executive powers with central bank powers. 

Govt is the swiftest way for people to enrich themselves...and has always been used to rent seek.

This is why anyone with half a brain comes to the conclusion that small-state libertarianism is the only thing that approaches fairness. (Capitalism's foibles pale in comparison to govt enabled rent seeking).

----------


## suntan

I don't think anybody wants to deliberately send an economy into a recession as it pretty well guarantees an election loss.

----------


## max_boost

> They just don't know what the fuck they are doing in general.



Can you help them understand

----------


## Buster

> I don't think anybody wants to deliberately send an economy into a recession as it pretty well guarantees an election loss.



They don't know they're ritarded

----------


## jwslam

> The key is to stay employed which isn't that hard for now.



You'd think that... then you talk to your unemployed friend.

"yea i've sent out 300 resumes and only got 2 interviews"
-sends out generic resumes with no cover letter
-only applies to jobs that are WFH full time, every other friday off, must be $150K+ base salary, asking for 6 weeks vacation/y

----------


## Darkane

> You'd think that... then you talk to your unemployed friend.
> 
> "yea i've sent out 300 resumes and only got 2 interviews"
> -sends out generic resumes with no cover letter
> -only applies to jobs that are WFH full time, every other friday off, must be $150K+ base salary, asking for 6 weeks vacation/y



This is funny, and spot on.

----------


## msommers

Sounds like a Boomer who got overpaid for having a pulse

----------


## zechs

> I don't think anybody wants to deliberately send an economy into a recession as it pretty well guarantees an election loss.



I mean, that's a bold claim to make considering Trudeau and the gang appear to be doing just that. Liberals are sinking in the polls and it is all by their own doing.

----------


## Buster

The liberals have confused a long period of expansionist fiscal and monetary policy as good economic stewardship. As a result they thought they could get away with prioritizing a green economy over actual wealth production.

And here we are.

Kerted and paying for it.

----------


## Disoblige

> wtf they changed their gravy. fuck life.



I think they did as well. It tastes more like townhouse gravy than the KFC gravy it used to be (which was fattier, lighter in color, more flavor).

----------


## suntan

The Bank of Canada will lose money for the first time ever this quarter.

Also, millions in raises.

----------


## sexualbanana

> You'd think that... then you talk to your unemployed friend.
> 
> "yea i've sent out 300 resumes and only got 2 interviews"
> -sends out generic resumes with no cover letter
> -only applies to jobs that are WFH full time, every other friday off, must be $150K+ base salary, asking for 6 weeks vacation/y






> This is funny, and spot on.



I used to think the same thing when I was on the job search side, but now that I've been involved a little in my firm's recruiting, I've come to understand that job postings attract a lot of garbage applicants. Everything from international applicants with questionable schooling and work histories to people who have absolutely no business applying for the position. For every 10 that we get for a position, about 9 of those fit in those categories - and that's being pretty generous.

----------


## Yolobimmer

On average, 1/5th of mortgages are renewed every year, so many are impacted.

This idiotic crusade to manage very manageable inflation by cranking fixed costs theough the roof is straight up theft and wealth transfer from the middle class to the banks.

----------


## Yolobimmer

> The liberals have confused a long period of expansionist fiscal and monetary policy as good economic stewardship. As a result they thought they could get away with prioritizing a green economy over actual wealth production.
> 
> And here we are.
> 
> Kerted and paying for it.



Wrong. This inflation was simple and completely predicted post covid supply and demand. Demand way up, supply still struggling to catch up and then keep up.

This inflation was a sign of a very healthy economy.

----------


## The Cosworth

> wtf they changed their gravy. fuck life.






> Kfc used to have some amazing gravy that could salvage cold fries. Their new gravy sucks balls so they gotta be hot and fresh imo.



WTF - Gravy and Popcorn Chicken used to be my jam. FFS




> The liberals have confused a long period of expansionist fiscal and monetary policy as good economic stewardship. As a result they thought they could get away with prioritizing a green economy over actual wealth production.
> 
> And here we are.
> 
> Kerted and paying for it.

----------


## phreezee

Promptly ignored: U.N. Calls On Fed, Other Central Banks to Halt Interest-Rate Increases

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-n-cal...es-11664809202

----------


## killramos

If the UN is bitching about it you know for sure it’s the correct choice.

----------


## ExtraSlow

Can we elect Danielle Smith to president of the UN so it can be abolished?

----------


## killramos

> Can we elect Danielle Smith to president of the UN so it can be abolished?



I’d argue Justin Trudeau is much more effective at destroying organizations he leads.

Can we send him to the UN?

----------


## ExtraSlow

Where do I sign?

----------


## suntan

Even they weren't dumb enough to hire him.

----------


## Misterman

> Promptly ignored: U.N. Calls On Fed, Other Central Banks to Halt Interest-Rate Increases
> 
> https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-n-cal...es-11664809202



So does the UN have any alternative solutions? Or just criticisms about things they don't understand?

----------


## Cagare

The UN can say whatever they want because they have no stake in the outcomes. It's the ultimate form of bureaucracy.

----------


## Brent.ff

another 0.5%. def regretting not locking in at 1.99 a year ago. 1 more year till my renewal... gonna hurt.

----------


## Darkane

Ouch. 

Yeah I can’t see the bank of canada taking their foot off the gas unless;

1) prime becomes higher then core inflation 5-6% today
2) the government meddles
3) recession, and a disastrous one at that

Going to be a bad couple of years unfortunately.

----------


## suntan

I pick #4: All of the above.

----------


## 03ozwhip

Well I'm back to see what everyone's opinions are now. I'm expecting my payments to be around the 2k/month range, up from last June at about 1300. 

There was a stress test for a reason and here it is, pretty much right on point of what the stress test number was at last year.

I can afford this, I just don't want to lol thinking more about it, it sucks to have to be on a variable right now, but it will suck more if low interest rates 4 years ago was something you were banking on when you renew this year.

I feel like I have something to look forward to in a few years when interest rates drop again and not have to be locked in at a stupid price......hopefully lol

----------


## killramos

They might go up they might go down

----------


## 03ozwhip

> They might go up they might go down



Lol yes.

----------


## JustinL

They will go up before they go down. Likely .25% in January and another .25% in March.

----------


## Xtrema

> I feel like I have something to look forward to in a few years when interest rates drop again and not have to be locked in at a stupid price......hopefully lol



If you still got 3-4 year left in your term, you may want to get ready to pay down principle a bit to keep payment from increasing for remainder of the term.

We will soon find out how long this high interest environment to be around by end of Q1.

The problem that I see lack of productivity is still a huge issue. We are still losing IT talents that we have to pay more to recover meanwhile oldest Gen Xer are starting to retire doesn't help. And nobody wants to work still and job numbers are still quite "good", so I don't see low interest environment to come back unless a major crash comes thru.

----------


## ExtraSlow

When I last renewed, variable was a full 1.0% cheaper than fixed. Right now, it seems the discount is much smaller. 
I personally would prefer fixed if they were the same rate. 

Different motivations and risk profile for each person. I don't think there's a simple one-size-fits-all answer for this question.

One very nice thing about variable is the ease of doing extra payments or ending early. For some people this could be very valuable.

----------


## flipstah

> When I last renewed, variable was a full 1.0% cheaper than fixed. Right now, it seems the discount is much smaller. 
> I personally would prefer fixed if they were the same rate. 
> 
> Different motivations and risk profile for each person. I don't think there's a simple one-size-fits-all answer for this question.
> 
> One very nice thing about variable is the ease of doing extra payments or ending early. For some people this could be very valuable.



You could do lump sum payments on a fixed. There's just a cap.

----------


## ExtraSlow

Some of them have very low caps. Some do not. I've had every type of mortgage over the years.

----------


## Buster

> When I last renewed, variable was a full 1.0% cheaper than fixed. Right now, it seems the discount is much smaller. 
> I personally would prefer fixed if they were the same rate. 
> 
> Different motivations and risk profile for each person. I don't think there's a simple one-size-fits-all answer for this question.
> 
> One very nice thing about variable is the ease of doing extra payments or ending early. For some people this could be very valuable.



The best mortgage strategy is simple:. Wait to see where rates go, and then travel back in time to either keep variable or go fixed.

----------


## 03ozwhip

> If you still got 3-4 year left in your term, you may want to get ready to pay down principle a bit to keep payment from increasing for remainder of the term.
> 
> We will soon find out how long this high interest environment to be around by end of Q1.
> 
> The problem that I see lack of productivity is still a huge issue. We are still losing IT talents that we have to pay more to recover meanwhile oldest Gen Xer are starting to retire doesn't help. And nobody wants to work still and job numbers are still quite "good", so I don't see low interest environment to come back unless a major crash comes thru.



Yep. That was something I was thinking about doing for sure. I have to look into what the rules are with my mortgage about much I can do and how often

----------


## tirebob

> The best mortgage strategy is simple:. Wait to see where rates go, and then travel back in time to either keep variable or go fixed.



I wonder if this would be considered hindsight or foresight?  :Confused:

----------


## 03ozwhip

> The best mortgage strategy is simple:. Wait to see where rates go, and then travel back in time to either keep variable or go fixed.



Amazing. I think I'll do.it.

----------


## killramos

> I wonder if this would be considered hindsight or foresight?



I mean. You can hold a rate for 120 days, so you kindof can benefit from hindsight in this case.

----------


## riander5



----------


## kenny

> I wonder if this would be considered hindsight or foresight?



insight

----------


## suntan

> The best mortgage strategy is simple:. Wait to see where rates go, and then travel back in time to either keep variable or go fixed.



This man gets it.

----------


## Xtrema

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/12/...se-2022-12-07/

Another .5%

Beating continues the until everyone goes back to work.

----------


## riander5

> https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/12/...se-2022-12-07/
> 
> Another .5%
> 
> Beating continues the until everyone goes back to work.



Aren't we supposed to stop working so we stop spending? Im confused now

----------


## suntan

It's all good, BoC now says they'll see how it goes. That means inflation will be 0% next month.

----------


## 03ozwhip

> https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/12/...se-2022-12-07/
> 
> Another .5%
> 
> Beating continues the until everyone goes back to work.



This is what prompted me to bump the thread. They say they are going to relax for a while, see if anything changes I guess.

I honestly don't know fuck all other than what I'm reading.

----------


## Misterman

> The best mortgage strategy is simple:. Wait to see where rates go, and then travel back in time to either keep variable or go fixed.



In lieu of a time machine though, one could simply pay attention to the market and make the best financial decision based on what the most likely outcomes are. This current wildly predictable scenario playing out didn't exactly just hit us out of nowhere. Anyone with any market knowledge at all was sounding the alarm on this a year in advance. 






> https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/12/...se-2022-12-07/
> 
> Another .5%
> 
> Beating continues the until everyone goes back to work.



The beating will likely continue until unemployment jumps due to corporate layoffs, and a lot of defaults on debt start happening. That's how you curb inflation, is remove the money out of the system that caused it.

----------


## Buster

> In lieu of a time machine though, one could simply pay attention to the market and make the best financial decision based on what the most likely outcomes are. This current wildly predictable scenario playing out didn't exactly just hit us out of nowhere. Anyone with any market knowledge at all was sounding the alarm on this a year in advance. 
> 
> .



wrong

----------


## Misterman

> wrong



Except here we are, and I'm right.

----------


## Buster

> except here we are, and i'm right.



sOMEONE START THE TIME MACHINE!!!11

----------


## ExtraSlow

This argument was pretty predictable for sure.

----------


## Buster

> This argument was pretty predictable for sure.



It's not an argument if I won it already.

----------


## Misterman

> It's not an argument if I won it already.



WRONG. 



There, now I won. lol 

I'm happy to give you credit where it's due in the areas you are knowledgeable about. But common man, these troll replies your ego can't resist, on subjects you get caught in pretty glaring intellectual oversights, is getting old.

----------


## Brent.ff

> WRONG. 
> 
> 
> 
> There, now I won. lol 
> 
> I'm happy to give you credit where it's due in the areas you are knowledgeable about. But common man, these troll replies your ego can't resist, on subjects you get caught in pretty glaring intellectual oversights, is getting old.



Didnt we already go through that if you had so wildly successfully predicted the market, you wouldn't be wasting your time on this forum talking about petty things like mortgage rates and be living on a yacht somewhere?

----------


## Buster

> WRONG. 
> 
> 
> 
> There, now I won. lol 
> 
> I'm happy to give you credit where it's due in the areas you are knowledgeable about. But common man, these troll replies your ego can't resist, on subjects you get caught in pretty glaring intellectual oversights, is getting old.



You think correctly stating the next flip of the coin will be an indicator of your prediction skills. You'd be wrong then, too.

Guessing correctly doesn't imply skill. You're funny for thinking it, though.

----------


## ThePenIsMightier

> WRONG. 
> 
> 
> 
> There, now I won. lol 
> 
> I'm happy to give you credit where it's due in the areas you are knowledgeable about. *But common man*, these troll replies your ego can't resist, on subjects you get caught in pretty glaring intellectual oversights, is getting old.



Did you just address Buster as "_Common Man_"??!

Gettin spicey!

----------


## ercchry

> You think correctly stating the next flip of the coin will be an indicator of your prediction skills. You'd be wrong then, too.
> 
> Guessing correctly doesn't imply skill. You're funny for thinking it, though.

----------


## Twin_Cam_Turbo

Our mortgage payments have gone from $1073 to $1640 so far, but we are actually paying $2640 a month into it to speed things up.

And by we I mean the other half.

----------


## suntan

Banks love this one weird trick.

----------


## msommers

Just forecasting

https://myperch.io/canada-interest-r...%20few%20years

----------


## Misterman

> You think correctly stating the next flip of the coin will be an indicator of your prediction skills. You'd be wrong then, too.
> 
> Guessing correctly doesn't imply skill. You're funny for thinking it, though.



I see you're still having your own yelling at clouds convo in your head by yourself. 

Investment advice from the Buster. Throw a dart at a board of numbers or stock symbols. YOLO into that. It doesn't matter what you pick, because some people get lucky, and some people don't.

----------


## Buster

> I see you're still having your own yelling at clouds convo in your head by yourself. 
> 
> Investment advice from the Buster. Throw a dart at a board of numbers or stock symbols. YOLO into that. It doesn't matter what you pick, because some people get lucky, and some people don't.



Now you're starting to get it.

----------


## suntan

> In lieu of a time machine though, one could simply pay attention to the market and make the best financial decision based on what the most likely outcomes are. This current wildly predictable scenario playing out didn't exactly just hit us out of nowhere. Anyone with any market knowledge at all was sounding the alarm on this a year in advance.



playing the odds is literally gambling. You can’t affect the odds in any way, if you could then it’s something else.

----------


## phreezee

Relevant?

----------


## Brent.ff

Come on guys, he predicted this a year in advance! You know, the same year that BOC held it at 0.25 and had said that they hadn’t planned to raise it for ‘a few years’. Misterman is smarter than the BOC. Duh. 

Show me the post that you keep referring to as ‘told you so’, cause from a quick skim, it never happened.

----------


## ThePenIsMightier

Well, hang on... The Liberals started printing money and then they kept printing money and then printed more money and that was no secret and we all saw that.
We should all know, and I think most of us did, that printing money leads to inflation. And the only attempted "cure" the govt has for inflation is to raise lending rates.

So, I think many of us saw an increase in rates coming. However, I doubt many people expected such radical and quick increases. Hence, this thread.

----------


## suntan

To be fair there's probably no one that works at the BoC that has ever gone through a period of M0/M1 money dumping, and remembering things from school is annoying, so their stance is understandable.

I mean the gov't gave $20K to people that made $5K. What were they thinking was going to happen?

The most laughable thing are the insipid forecasts coming out of the banks right now.

----------


## 03ozwhip

> Well, hang on... The Liberals started printing money and then they kept printing money and then printed more money and that was no secret and we all saw that.
> We should all know, and I think most of us did, that printing money leads to inflation. And the only attempted "cure" the govt has for inflation is to raise lending rates.
> 
> So, I think many of us saw an increase in rates coming. However, I doubt many people expected such radical and quick increases. Hence, this thread.



Ya pretty much. I knew it was going to go up, just wasn't expecting it going up 7 times in a year and anyone saying they saw that coming is full of shit.

----------


## suntan

I dunno I thought it'd be worse. I was thinking 10% was a possibility if they went that route. But I also thought the BoC was going to tank the $ instead.

----------


## 94boosted

> Our mortgage payments have gone from $1073 to $1640 so far, but we are actually paying $2640 a month into it to speed things up.
> 
> And by we I mean the other half.



Yah we're up 53% on our mortgage payment with this latest hike. We went variable in the spring of 2021 as, at that time, I naively thought Covid was going to be around for years to come. I don't even want to tell you what I was offered for a fixed rate back then  :Cry:   :Cry:   :Cry: 

If 1/3 of folks are variable and 20% of those on a fixed mortgage will need to renew this year, I wonder when the music will stop.

----------


## Xtrema

> If 1/3 of folks are variable and 20% of those on a fixed mortgage will need to renew this year, I wonder when the music will stop.



We will see if that mortgage stress test started in 2016 works at all.



The question is, will the next 15 years like last 15 years or we are going back to the 90s.

----------


## ExtraSlow

Close down CMHC and let lenders do their own risk assessments. Now that'll fix the housing market!

----------


## suntan

> Yah we're up 53% on our mortgage payment with this latest hike. We went variable in the spring of 2021 as, at that time, I naively thought Covid was going to be around for years to come. I don't even want to tell you what I was offered for a fixed rate back then



World economies were about to collapse, they had no choice but to open up, and they should have never closed them down to begin with.

----------


## bjstare

> Close down CMHC and let lenders do their own risk assessments. Now that'll fix the housing market!



Now we're talkin.

----------


## suntan

> The question is, will the next 15 years like last 15 years or we are going back to the 90s.



If it looks like the 2000s there's going to be a lot of fucked people.

Banks are loving this. Underwater houses can't be sold, so the lendee is going to take it up the ass so far it'll be a new category on pronhub.

----------


## 89coupe

> The best mortgage strategy is simple:. Wait to see where rates go, and then travel back in time to either keep variable or go fixed.



The best mortgage is no mortgage.

----------


## Xtrema

> the best mortgage is no mortgage on primary residence.



ftfy

But I am sure people still have loads of HELOC.

----------


## 88CRX

> The best mortgage is no mortgage.



Word! Renting is best.

----------


## killramos

Just never be poor and these things don’t matter so much

----------


## suntan

> The best mortgage is no mortgage.



What a terrible strategy, that's like leaving on the table!!

----------


## Buster

> The best mortgage is no mortgage.



So very middle class thinking of you. I expected better

----------


## max_boost

Y’all terrible predictors of the future except RE agents. It’s always a good time for those guys  :Big Grin:

----------


## 90_Shelby

Over 20 years ago, when I still lived in the NE, and drove shitty cars, while working as a minimum wage mechanic; I remember asking a well off client for any simple guidance he could provide me. His words were, "Spend less than you make," and this has always resonated with me.

Back to the thread topic, and looking at the historical data, current rates are still low despite the rate hikes. What's the typical amortization period? 20-30 years? 

Instead of regretting not locking in your interest rates, I would think there would be more regret associated with buying a house that cost too much if there is anxiety with the rate hikes? Aren't renewal periods every 3-5 years for a 20 to 30 year span for most people? Looking at that chart over any 20-30 year period tells quite the story.

----------


## max_boost

Don’t you guys have massive portfolios or did the meme crypto crash put a dent in it  :Big Grin:

----------


## 89coupe

> Word! Renting is best.



Hell yes, pay off someone else’s mortgage. 

 :ROFL!:

----------


## max_boost

If we buy now aren’t we buying the peak home price AND interest rate?  :Big Grin:

----------


## msommers

> We will see if that mortgage stress test started in 2016 works at all.
> 
> 
> 
> The question is, will the next 15 years like last 15 years or we are going back to the 90s.



If we saw interest rates go back to the 80/90s, I think it would tank the entire Canadian economy

----------


## suntan

It tanked it back then!

----------


## max_boost

Let’s tank it again !

----------


## suntan

It is the Trudeau way.

----------


## riander5

> Over 20 years ago, when I still lived in the NE, and drove shitty cars, while working as a minimum wage mechanic; I remember asking a well off client for any simple guidance he could provide me. His words were, "Spend less than you make," and this has always resonated with me.
> 
> Back to the thread topic, and looking at the historical data, current rates are still low despite the rate hikes. What's the typical amortization period? 20-30 years? 
> 
> Instead of regretting not locking in your interest rates, I would think there would be more regret associated with buying a house that cost too much if there is anxiety with the rate hikes? Aren't renewal periods every 3-5 years for a 20 to 30 year span for most people? Looking at that chart over any 20-30 year period tells quite the story.



If I had a dollar for every time some boomer said - 'rates are still historically low!'

----------


## SilverRex

Correct me if I’m wrong but 20% interest rate in the 80s were on houses 50k-100k , which is same as 5-7% rate at 500k house prices. So if we go back to 10%+ we are fcuked

----------


## 88CRX

> If I had a dollar for every time some boomer said - 'rates are still historically low!'



... you'd have your mortgage paid off!

----------


## Xtrema

> Correct me if I’m wrong but 20% interest rate in the 80s were on houses 50k-100k , which is same as 5-7% rate at 500k house prices. So if we go back to 10%+ we are fcuked



Then get ready to pay $20 for Big Mac.

----------


## 94boosted

> Looking at that chart over any 20-30 year period tells quite the story.



Sharp increases are met with a corresponding decline within ~3 years? With how expensive literally everything is now and more interest rate hikes likely to come in early '23, I'll be curious to see how long before BoC has to start dropping.





> Correct me if I’m wrong but 20% interest rate in the 80s were on houses 50k-100k , which is same as 5-7% rate at 500k house prices. So if we go back to 10%+ we are fcuked



Don't forget that in the early 80's the average house cost less than 3x the average household income, it's more than double that now days. 

https://globalnews.ca/news/7740756/h...across-canada/

----------


## Buster

> Sharp increases are met with a corresponding decline within ~3 years? With how expensive literally everything is now and more interest rate hikes likely to come in early '23, I'll be curious to see how long before BoC has to start dropping.



ask Misterman, he knows.

----------


## ExtraSlow

Which beyond member is predicting broad deflation?

----------


## 88CRX

> So if we go back to 10%+ we are fcuked



I don't know where rates will go... but I do know that anywhere near or over 10% will crater society. 

Except for the pop drinkers in Aspen, they'll be fine. Either cause they're renters without a mortgage or their so filthy rich it doesn't matter.

----------


## Buster

> Which beyond member is predicting broad deflation?



Gov't have demonstrated over the past 15 years that they are terrified of deflationary vicious cycles and they will literally throw everything into the mix to prevent them.

----------


## suntan

It's almost impossible to go into a deflationary cycle as long as there's more working people than old retirees.

Wait...

----------


## Buster

> It's almost impossible to go into a deflationary cycle as long as there's more working people than old retirees.
> 
> Wait...



or a housing crisis, or a pandemic, or, or, or....

----------


## suntan

Housing will never be deflationary.

----------


## Buster

> Housing will never be deflationary.



what makes you say this?

----------


## suntan

Everybody needs housing, just like how everybody needs food, water and poops.

Doesn't mean the current price won't drop, but that's different than deflation.

Well I guess housing could be nationalized. That'll deflate it lol.

----------


## riander5

> Everybody needs housing, just like how everybody needs food, water and poops.
> 
> Doesn't mean the current price won't drop, but that's different than deflation.
> 
> Well I guess housing could be nationalized. That'll deflate it lol.



Nationalize it, or blackrock rents it to us. Pick your poison

----------


## suntan

Try not to accidently sell your home.

----------


## msommers

> I don't know where rates will go... but I do know that anywhere near or over 10% will crater society. 
> 
> Except for the pop drinkers in Aspen, they'll be fine. Either cause they're renters without a mortgage or their so filthy rich it doesn't matter.



No one in Aspen is drinking pop. How do you think they got there? No pop, no avocado toast and definitely no streaming services. That's about 100k a year savings!

----------


## Xtrema

> Which beyond member is predicting broad deflation?



Some dealer out east is advertising 2023 Supra at invoice, is that deflation?

----------


## suntan

Is it going be cheaper in five years?

----------


## max_boost

Supras that’s not good enough lol Lmk when 911s sell for msrp lol that’s my metric

----------


## 90_Shelby

> If I had a dollar for every time some boomer said - 'rates are still historically low!'






> Sharp increases are met with a corresponding decline within ~3 years?



The probability that interest rates would stay under 5% for the duration of your mortgage (25-30 years), is probably pretty low. Anticipating otherwise would be fairly silly in my mind and this has nothing to do with trying to predict the future.





> Supras that’s not good enough lol Lmk when 911s sell for msrp lol that’s my metric



911's are for wanna be car guys where things didn't quite work out the way they wanted. Stick with the NSX.

----------


## max_boost

Ahaha I’ll get laughed out of the showroom. Hello sir I wanna buy a new one like this zero options pls lol

----------


## Twin_Cam_Turbo

> Some dealer out east is advertising 2023 Supra at invoice, is that deflation?



A friend got a Supra under msrp here in Alberta a few weeks ago, but it’s an auto one.

----------


## SilverRex

> The probability that interest rates would stay under 5% for the duration of your mortgage (25-30 years), is probably pretty low. Anticipating otherwise would be fairly silly in my mind and this has nothing to do with trying to predict the future.



Not sure if anyone has brought this up, but with the trillions of debt the US has, I thought it would be unstainable if interest rates remain too high. Their interest payment alone could exceed their GDP. Perhaps this is one reason why they rather be aggressive to curb inflation. Short term pain over long term, and wont even mind inducing a recession so they have a new reason to reduce the rates back down and prolong the inevitable. <-what ever that is

----------


## suntan

It's pretty difficult to accomplish a soft landing.

The USA is run by imbeciles at the moment, don't expect anything they do fiscally do make any sense.

----------


## Xtrema

> Not sure if anyone has brought this up, but with the trillions of debt the US has, I thought it would be unstainable if interest rates remain too high. Their interest payment alone could exceed their GDP. Perhaps this is one reason why they rather be aggressive to curb inflation. Short term pain over long term, and wont even mind inducing a recession so they have a new reason to reduce the rates back down and prolong the inevitable. <-what ever that is



They need buffer back to have something to control the next crisis.

And we have endless possibilities of what that will be.

In short term we are staring at another debt bubble. 

In mid term (or could be short term) we are looking at petroyuan if Saudi is crazy enough to take it. Russia already accept payment 1/2 in yuan.

In long term, we are see demographic issue everywhere but Africa.

----------


## Buster

> Not sure if anyone has brought this up, but with the trillions of debt the US has, I thought it would be unstainable if interest rates remain too high. Their interest payment alone could exceed their GDP. Perhaps this is one reason why they rather be aggressive to curb inflation. Short term pain over long term, and wont even mind inducing a recession so they have a new reason to reduce the rates back down and prolong the inevitable. <-what ever that is



they're worried about high interest rates, so they are raising interest rates?

----------


## pheoxs

> Not sure if anyone has brought this up, but with the trillions of debt the US has, I thought it would be unstainable if interest rates remain too high. Their interest payment alone could exceed their GDP. Perhaps this is one reason why they rather be aggressive to curb inflation. Short term pain over long term, and wont even mind inducing a recession so they have a new reason to reduce the rates back down and prolong the inevitable. <-what ever that is



One common misconception is thinking the federal debt (both Canada and US) tracks the federal reserve / BoC interest rates. Majority of the federal debt is in bonds which at the moment are starting to drop but moreso they are often locked up for long periods of time.

Canada for example took a lot of its Covid debt as 20+ year bonds at very low interest rates. So we wont see the increased interest costs for quite some time. However  that day will come and its going to be very ugly.

~450 billion of Canadas 1.1 trillion is locked until past 2030. 100B is locked until past 2050.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/stats/go...022_11_30.html

----------


## Buster

> One common misconception is thinking the federal debt (both Canada and US) tracks the federal reserve / BoC interest rates. Majority of the federal debt is in bonds which at the moment are starting to drop but moreso they are often locked up for long periods of time.
> 
> Canada for example took a lot of its Covid debt as 20+ year bonds at very low interest rates. So we won’t see the increased interest costs for quite some time. However … that day will come and it’s going to be very ugly.
> 
> ~450 billion of Canadas 1.1 trillion is locked until past 2030. 100B is locked until past 2050.
> https://www.bankofcanada.ca/stats/go...022_11_30.html



Bonds are traded on the open market, they don't behave like your mortgage.

----------


## suntan

> They need buffer back to have something to control the next crisis.
> 
> And we have endless possibilities of what that will be.
> 
> In short term we are staring at another debt bubble. 
> 
> In mid term (or could be short term) we are looking at petroyuan if Saudi is crazy enough to take it. Russia already accept payment 1/2 in yuan.
> 
> In long term, we are see demographic issue everywhere but Africa.



lol stop thinking the yuan is going to be anything.

----------


## pheoxs

> Bonds are traded on the open market, they don't behave like your mortgage.



they are but the coupon rate doesn’t change until they expire. If Canada issues a 2% 25 year bond during Covid it doesn’t matter if you buy it then sell it to me then I sell it to rage. Canada still pays the same 2% for 25 years.

----------


## Buster

> they are but the coupon rate doesn’t change until they expire. If Canada issues a 2% 25 year bond during Covid it doesn’t matter if you buy it then sell it to me then I sell it to rage. Canada still pays the same 2% for 25 years.



and what determines the pricing on the next set of GoC bonds?

----------


## suntan

Magic.

pheoxs is correct, but governments are constantly renewing debt. That's the problem.

It also means that tactics like QE are basically impossible to do now.

Just as an fyi, a bond that pays 8% was basically considered to be junk (i.e. there was a very high chance the debtor would not last the term of the bond) before all this happened.

----------


## Buster

> Magic.
> 
> pheoxs is correct, but governments are constantly renewing debt. That's the problem.
> 
> It also means that tactics like QE are basically impossible to do now.
> 
> Just as an fyi, a bond that pays 8% was basically considered to be junk (i.e. there was a very high chance the debtor would not last the term of the bond) before all this happened.



He's not really correct, no - at least not in any useful sense....the nominal/coupon rate of the bond is only one piece of the puzzle.

----------


## suntan

He's correct that the coupon rate doesn't change for a particular bond. That's the only thing he seemed to have said. But yeah it's not a really useful thing to say.

----------


## SJW

Will I see an increased amount of side by side UTVs for sale soon? 

That's all I care about right now.

----------


## ExtraSlow

> Will I see an increased amount of side by side UTVs for sale soon? 
> 
> That's all I care about right now.



Group buy?

----------


## Tik-Tok

> Will I see an increased amount of side by side UTVs for sale soon? 
> 
> That's all I care about right now.



They're more likely to suddenly combust, along with the house and trailer which coincidentally was parked in the driveway in the dead of winter.

----------


## SJW

> They're more likely to suddenly combust, along with the house and trailer which coincidentally was parked in the driveway in the dead of winter.



Oh you mean Jewish lightning?

----------


## ThePenIsMightier

> Oh you mean Jewish lightning?



Whoa, Kanye!

----------


## SJW

> Whoa, Kanye!



Oh no it's ok. I have Jewish friends. Is that how this works?

----------


## ExtraSlow

I'm not actually Jewish, I just like grumans deli.

----------


## SJW

> I'm not actually Jewish, I just like grumans deli.



You buying?

----------


## Rocket1k78

> Will I see an increased amount of side by side UTVs for sale soon? 
> 
> That's all I care about right now.



I would suspect there to be some really good deals in the near future on things like this unless the below happens lol 




> They're more likely to suddenly combust, along with the house and trailer which coincidentally was parked in the driveway in the dead of winter.

----------


## SJW

> I would suspect there to be some really good deals in the near future on things like this unless the below happens lol



I hope so. I really want one. More comfortable than quadding.

----------


## SKR

> Group bi?



#artroom

----------


## Masked Bandit

> Oh you mean Jewish lightning?



Financial Combustion is the PC term.

----------


## SJW

> Financial Combustion is the PC term.



I'm not on PC website.

----------


## ExtraSlow

They call it UCP now.

----------


## Misterman

> Come on guys, he predicted this a year in advance! You know, the same year that BOC held it at 0.25 and had said that they hadn’t planned to raise it for ‘a few years’. Misterman is smarter than the BOC. Duh. 
> 
> Show me the post that you keep referring to as ‘told you so’, cause from a quick skim, it never happened.



Skim harder I guess. Kind of ironic that you mention BoC while trying to inaccurately paint me as claiming myself to be some sort of clairvoyant. Because if you literally had just listened to the BoC, they were telling us in 2021 that things were fucked and they'd be lifting interest rates in early 2022. Yes I did predict it to start in March, but I'll admit that was a lucky guess. In any sense, this isn't about making predictions, it's about doing due diligence and acting accordingly. Since every indicator was telling us that interest rates were going to go up, it was a pretty fair thing to plan for. If you're correct you lock in a low mortgage rate and get your money out of the market before it inevitably drops. And if you're wrong and some black swan happens, maybe you lock in a rate you could've waited on for a bit, and you miss another 10% market run up. The positives of taking action outweighed the negatives in my due diligence review. So I acted as prudently as possible given the details that I did know about. 






> Ya pretty much. I knew it was going to go up, just wasn't expecting it going up 7 times in a year and anyone saying they saw that coming is full of shit.



Based on historical trends and data, I was estimating mortgage rates somewhere in the 10-12% range. Hiking cycle isn't over yet, we shall see where it goes. I had no care about the speed of the increases, I just knew I didn't want to be a part of the increases at all. But with the fact we already had 15-20% real inflation for over a year that they were pretending didn't exist, it seemed logical to assume rates would go up quickly when they finally got their heads out of their assess and started. 








> We will see if that mortgage stress test started in 2016 works at all.
> 
> 
> 
> The question is, will the next 15 years like last 15 years or we are going back to the 90s.



B rate lenders are already bending over backwards to keep borrowers in their houses and prevent full defaults. A number of variable rate borrowers are in a position where their mortgage principle is going up because their payments aren't even enough to cover interest. Or some people are adding years to their amortization. Scary thing about the stress test, is we have already passed the inflection point where current rates are now higher than what people were stress tested at. So yes it will be interesting to see what happens as renewals keep coming up. 






> If we saw interest rates go back to the 80/90s, I think it would tank the entire Canadian economy



Well tanking the economy is essentially the goal. They're just trying to control how hard and fast it happens. But we should not require any rates like 80's to accomplish this. Debt loads nowadays are so high it'll take much less interest to completely wreck people. 






> Which beyond member is predicting broad deflation?



If your broad deflates you can just patch her up. Check with your local tire guy. 






> ask Misterman, he knows.



Nah man, due diligence doesn't matter at all. Just roll a die and ascribe a thing to it. Warren Buffet and guys like that are just "lucky"

----------


## Buster

dont you dare bring Mr. Buffett (note spelling), into this.

----------


## Misterman

> dont you dare bring Mr. Buffett (note spelling), into this.



I was thinking maybe you know of a good Asian Buffet we could discuss this over some peking duck.

----------


## Brent.ff

Show me the post that you said it was going up.

----------


## bjstare

Also, if you can include a doodle on the historical chart to show why you estimate "10-12% range", that would be great. I think some people (generously) call this type of guessing "Technical Analysis".

----------


## SJW

Th'fuck kinda dudes name is Tiff anyway?

Hi my name is Tiff.

Everyone: I'm sorry what?

----------


## max_boost

> Show me the post that you said it was going up.



Show beyond the receipts !!

----------


## ExtraSlow

Where is the rpoove!!!>>!>!>>!<<<?>???

----------


## Xtrema

> Also, if you can include a doodle on the historical chart to show why you estimate "10-12% range", that would be great. I think some people (generously) call this type of guessing "Technical Analysis".

----------


## suntan

Perfect.

----------


## Misterman

> Also, if you can include a doodle on the historical chart to show why you estimate "10-12% range", that would be great. I think some people (generously) call this type of guessing "Technical Analysis".



I won't be doodling any charts, it should be simple enough for anyone to go look at historical charts of interest and inflation. Historically, interest rates need to match inflation to curb it. Debt is much higher now though, so the guesstimate from anyone that has had half a pulse on this situation is that BoC rates don't need to go up to inflation rate, but likely that mortgage rates could.





> Show me the post that you said it was going up.



If you have a bone to pick then go sift through a thousand covid posts yourself. I got better shit to do with my day. I'm not sure why you're so concerned about which of us were repeating what sensible economists were saying anyway?

----------


## Buster

> I won't be doodling any charts, it should be simple enough for anyone to go look at historical charts of interest and inflation. Historically, interest rates need to match inflation to curb it. Debt is much higher now though, so the guesstimate from anyone that has had half a pulse on this situation is that BoC rates don't need to go up to inflation rate, but likely that mortgage rates could.



so is the high inflation causing high rates, or are the low rates causing inflation.

headexploding.gif

----------


## suntan

Low rates caused high inflation which caused high rates.

----------


## Buster

> Low rates caused high inflation which caused high rates.



i was joking

----------


## suntan

> i was joking



Not to Misterman!

----------


## ThePenIsMightier

Got a couple of 5.2-incher simp's here.

----------


## schurchill39

> Got a couple of 5.2-incher simp's here.



Easy there Long-Dong Silver

----------


## ZenOps

So... 10% on $5, or 6% on a $7 loaf of bread next year? Or are we going to hit a deflationary death spiral.

The people in control of the knobs are twisting for all their worth.

----------


## Xtrema

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toron...lose-1.6685427




> First-time homebuyer Gurcharan Rehal agreed in October 2021 to pay $1.959 million, plus $90,000 in upgrades, for a single-detached home that would house himself, his wife, their two children and his mother.
> 
> .....
> 
> An appraisal recently estimated the home's value at $1.7 million — more than $300,000 less than what he agreed to pay for it. On top of that, he says the mortgage rate he was pre-approved for would have required monthly payments of between *$5,500 and $6,000, but now he's being quoted amounts between $12,000 and $15,000 per month.*
> 
> "We thought, if we live hand-to-mouth, we can still afford it," Rehal, an *Uber driver who also earns income as a property manager and from a business in India*, told CBC News. 
> 
> .....
> ...



What the actual fuck.

----------


## ExtraSlow

Uber driver had $260,000 down payment AND now can't afford his home? You are going to have to call me "literally worse than Hitler" because I think this guy is a fuckwit who deserves to lose his home.

----------


## ercchry

You know rates are high when the money launderers are even complaining  :ROFL!:

----------


## killramos

Don’t be poor

It’s a shitty starter home, it’s not like they are young professionals who could afford something nice.

----------


## Disoblige

That's a lot of money saved from no pop.

----------


## suntan

Fucking idiots.

----------


## msommers

> You know rates are high when the money launderers are even complaining



He didn't say he was a Realtor

----------


## max_boost

Blame the banks for approving that

----------


## killramos

> Blame the banks for approving that



And then these idiots would still run to the CBC for the evil banks dashing their hopes of home ownership.

----------


## suntan

Most likely a b lender. Many are in deep trouble right now.

----------


## ercchry

> Most likely a b lender. Many are in deep trouble right now.



In what regards? People not paying, or people upset in what they are now paying?

They bitch and moan but here we are with one of the busiest Decembers I can remember

----------


## suntan

Apparently they're not getting enough new business. They apparently have a lot of churn because nobody wants to renew with a b if they can help it.

edit: hcg.

----------


## ercchry

> Apparently they're not getting enough new business. They apparently have a lot of churn because nobody wants to renew with a b if they can help it.



No one ever wants to renew with B… but there is a reason they are here and a lot are stuck, trickle down qualifying too, lots of the new business we’re seeing is less bruised credit, more stretched ratios.

I think the whole industry is down on new originations in general, but wouldn’t say deep trouble…

That comes with the defaults on the underwater 2020-2021 Ontario loans… if the lenders are not unloading them with securitization to other investors… if they do it’s just more revenue as they still get paid for the foreclosure process while the investors are left with the shortfalls

----------


## suntan

hcg... Romspen... 

You might be retired the next time you see 2% overnight.

----------


## ercchry

> hcg... Romspen... 
> 
> You might be retired the next time you see 2% overnight.



Yeah, compared to HCG we’re small as hell… but it’s actually mostly the big 5 holding the bags for lots of the smaller lenders… even your A monoline mtg 

As far as rates go, overnight has little to do with fixed rate pricing (besides it just generally driving the cost of capital)… alts raise GICs for the most part, so it’s all just a relevant spread at time of origination and renewals. I think it’s actually harder to be competitive and profitable when money is cheap than it is now, what’s 50bps when rates are north of 7%?

----------


## jutes

> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toron...lose-1.6685427
> 
> 
> 
> What the actual fuck.



Are the kids old enough to drive ricksha....err.....Ubers now? 12-15k is manageable when everyone in the household works. I hear trucking companies are always looking for drivers.

edit: quick maths..... no, they are fucked.

----------


## vengie

Drives an Uber and is a property manager for a company in India. 
Proceeds to have $2.05m budget. 

Someone has been watching too much House Hunters on HGTV.

----------


## suntan

> Drives an Uber and is a property manager for a company in India. 
> Proceeds to have $2.05m budget. 
> 
> Someone has been watching too much House Hunters on HGTV.



It's not out of the ordinary.

Ex-employee bought a $2m house in Vancouver. Makes $60K. Hubby doesn't make anything substantial.

----------


## vengie

A suitable budget for a young professional couple.

----------


## Xtrema

> edit: quick maths..... no, they are fucked.



CMHC doesn't cover $2M home. So will any lender even entertain less than $400k down for a mortgage? Will any lender let an uber driver take out $1.6M mortgage?

None of those numbers make sense how they think they could afford that home in the 1st place even without the downturn/rate hike.

There is some funny money involved here. Or we are getting our own version of 2008 financial crisis.

----------


## jutes

People are taking close to their max pre-approvals and not leaving any room for things like rate increases and food. This is the Canadian dream.

----------


## ercchry

> CMHC doesn't cover $2M home. So will any lender even entertain less than $400k down for a mortgage? Will any lender let an uber driver take out $1.6M mortgage?
> 
> None of those numbers make sense how they think they could afford that home in the 1st place even without the downturn/rate hike.
> 
> There is some funny money involved here. Or we are getting our own version of 2008 financial crisis.



I think that’s just the wording… they should have said deposits, DP is not due till possession, so if it’s been made already that’s a deposit

----------


## suntan

Isn't deposit lost to buyer if buyer back out?

----------


## Xtrema

> People are taking close to their max pre-approvals and not leaving any room for things like rate increases and food. This is the Canadian dream.



Stress test would have taken care of a case like this. But I guess anyone can put a deposit down and it's not developer's problem if they can't close.

That said seems like everyone is cashing out and coming here...

Q3 2022 migration:

----------


## jutes

> That said seems like everyone is cashing out and coming here...



How are the cactus clubs in AB though?

----------


## suntan

> Stress test would have taken care of a case like this. But I guess anyone can put a deposit down and it's not developer's problem if they can't close.
> 
> That said seems like everyone is cashing out and coming here...
> 
> Q3 2022 migration:



Gross.

----------


## Rocket1k78

> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toron...lose-1.6685427
> 
> What the actual fuck.



Saw this too and said the same thing





> Isn't deposit lost to buyer if buyer back out?



I think thats the case for most if not all. For the buyers in the article above the builders lawyers even sent out a letter to one of the buyers that wanted to back out and they said they would go after them for the losses.

----------


## littledan

Great. Here come the eastern bums and creeps. Instead of identifying race on drivers licenses they should have an AB join date... just like beyond. Fucken 07s

----------


## ercchry

> Saw this too and said the same thing
> 
> 
> 
> I think thats the case for most if not all. For the buyers in the article above the builders lawyers even sent out a letter to one of the buyers that wanted to back out and they said they would go after them for the losses.



Yeah, if they find a new buyer for the $1.7m it’s now appraised at, they would be liable for the difference… easy one when that cash is already in hand too vs suing them into a banko after the fact.

The missing puzzle piece on this one is the india based BFS income… that’s a major part of the qualifying… if there is qualification. The $12k/month sounds more like private money to me… I know we won’t touch that shit, AML nightmare, but private doesn’t need to worry about that shit

----------


## 88CRX

Who had the crystal balls?

Variable 5 year rate at 6.18%
Fixed 2 year at 5.77%
Fixed 5 year at 5.64%

Go!

----------


## ercchry

> Who had the crystal balls?
> 
> Variable 5 year rate at 6.18%
> Fixed 2 year at 5.77%
> Fixed 5 year at 5.64%
> 
> Go!



P-0.27%?? Lulz… no, personally I’d do the 2yr, if we do see rates start to come down the IRD on the 5yr will suck if you want to try and get a new mtg mid-term

----------


## Disoblige

Yeah because can it get worse? Sure. But in 2 years, if everything stayed the same then you're around the same as if you did a 5 year fixed anyways. But at least you got options if it stays the same, or gets slightly better.

Let's see if my comment ages well  :ROFL!:

----------


## ercchry

> Yeah because can it get worse? Sure. But in 2 years, if everything stayed the same then you're around the same as if you did a 5 year fixed anyways. But at least you got options if it stays the same, or gets slightly better.
> 
> Let's see if my comment ages well



That’s my thoughts, plus they usually don’t say no if you want to extend your term early (if we see another, whatever the hell this year was)

----------


## Buster

> Who had the crystal balls?
> 
> Variable 5 year rate at 6.18%
> Fixed 2 year at 5.77%
> Fixed 5 year at 5.64%
> 
> Go!



Misterman

----------


## suntan

> Who had the crystal balls?
> 
> Variable 5 year rate at 6.18%
> Fixed 2 year at 5.77%
> Fixed 5 year at 5.64%
> 
> Go!



Variable if you are prepared to pay more in the short term with the possibility of lower rates in the future.

----------


## Disoblige

> Variable if you are prepared to pay more in the short term with the possibility of lower rates in the future.



Ballsy. But you are assuming BoC is quick to lower so soon. I feel they gonna do this wait and see approach for a while...

----------


## suntan

Nah maybe in year 4 or 5 down 1%.

----------


## Buster

Always variable

----------


## Rocket1k78

> Yeah, if they find a new buyer for the $1.7m it’s now appraised at, they would be liable for the difference…



Just saw this. Took awhile but they won. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...how%20for%20it.

----------


## Disoblige

> Always variable



1.79% fixed tho...
I was on variable 2 years ago and then mortgage company calls me to see if I wanna go 1.79 fixed. I was thinking, uhhh ok lol. That is the first time ever I went fixed.

They prolly got scared I was gonna payout and leave or something, who knows.

----------


## Buster

> 1.79% fixed tho...
> I was on variable 2 years ago and then mortgage company calls me to see if I wanna go 1.79 fixed. I was thinking, uhhh ok lol. That is the first time ever I went fixed.
> 
> They prolly got scared I was gonna payout and leave or something, who knows.



You do not pick variable because it ensures the best outcome, you pick variable because it ensures the _probability_ of the best outcome

----------


## Disoblige

I am a gambler but this time I bought insurance  :Cry:

----------


## ercchry

> You do not pick variable because it ensures the best outcome, you pick variable because it ensures the _probability_ of the best outcome



But when the discount off prime is less than what most people have on a HELOC… how the hell can you go variable? No… not at P-0.27%

Also 5yr is usually the biggest discount on rate for fixed, but not here… so why agree to a longer term when you don’t have to? 

So 2yr is what’s left

----------


## mr2mike

I think we need another slander piece in the Toronto Times.
Which beyonder wants to conjure up a great story?
5:1 guys to girls. Nat Gas heat in every home. Gross.

----------


## ExtraSlow

@ercchry
 is my copilot

----------


## Buster

> But when the discount off prime is less than what most people have on a HELOC… how the hell can you go variable? No… not at P-0.27%
> 
> Also 5yr is usually the biggest discount on rate for fixed, but not here… so why agree to a longer term when you don’t have to? 
> 
> So 2yr is what’s left



When you have an inverted yield curve you get a variety of odd market behaviors.

----------


## Disoblige

> I think we need another slander piece in the Toronto Times.
> Which beyonder wants to conjure up a great story?
> 5:1 guys to girls. Nat Gas heat in every home. Gross.



Hmmm... What country has a 1:5 guy to girl ratio? Asking for a friend.

----------


## killramos

Dunno about country. Downtown Halifax near the university is pretty good odds tho

----------


## Buster

> Dunno about country. Downtown Halifax near the university is pretty good odds tho



They're all vomiting Donaire sauce into the gutters

----------


## ExtraSlow

Greenland?

----------


## Tik-Tok

Ukraine and/or Russia, eventually.

----------


## killramos

> They're all vomiting Donaire sauce into the gutters



Not a bad gig if you are peddling donair sauce

----------


## ercchry

If they’re already full of sweet sauce, is that considered sloppy seconds?

----------


## killramos

Not when it comes to points in the win column

----------


## Xtrema

> Ukraine and/or Russia, eventually.



I thought we already got all the Ukrainian women and kids.

----------


## Misterman

> Uber driver had $260,000 down payment AND now can't afford his home? You are going to have to call me "literally worse than Hitler" because I think this guy is a fuckwit who deserves to lose his home.



Kind of typical of Canadian immigration. Import a "Doctor" from India who only qualifies because he is bringing $300k with him, he uses the 300k to purchase a home and help inflate our bubble, then don't acknowledge his credentials and force him to work at a gas station as a minimum wage employee. 

There's a reason so many of them are just saying "Fuck it" and going back. 






> Isn't deposit lost to buyer if buyer back out?



Not only is it lost, but the builder then sues you for the difference in price of what you agreed to in contract and what he can sell it for now. 






> Ballsy. But you are assuming BoC is quick to lower so soon. I feel they gonna do this wait and see approach for a while...



They have been pretty specific about their intentions. They acknowledge there is risks with raising rates too much, and with not raising rates enough. And they say the risks of not raising enough far outweigh the risk of raising too much. Sounds to me like we can expect more raises. 

The big thing people are missing on this, is they think there is some sort of genuine intentions for the BoC of a "Soft Landing" to this mess. One can assume they have to be dedicated to curbing inflation, because the country is fucked if they don't. For inflation to come down they need unemployment to spike and defaults to occur. As long as people keep scraping by we should expect a high probability of rates to continue going up until people stop scraping by. 






> You do not pick variable because it ensures the best outcome, you pick variable because it ensures the _probability_ of the best outcome



That might be why YOU make that choice. Personally I don't plan to have a mortgage for 100 years, so I take into account a few more factors than an all time comparison of variable vs fixed. 






> They're all vomiting Donaire sauce into the gutters



So you're saying they have a hard time saying no. Sounds like my kinda victim.... err I mean lady.

----------


## dirtsniffer

Considering renewing at 4.89 for a 5 year fixed. Can you talk me out of it?

----------


## suntan

> Considering renewing at 4.89 for a 5 year fixed. Can you talk me out of it?



Nothing beats the advice from a salesperson.

----------


## vengie

Lol yes. 
Don't do it.

----------


## Darkane

> Considering renewing at 4.89 for a 5 year fixed. Can you talk me out of it?



What’s the alternative?

Can you lock in for 3? Mortgages compound differently than they appear. 

It’s possible you’d save more in the long term at 4.89 over a 6% variable and then when a variable drops below locked in rates. 

Need the tables and someone with a brain for accounting to run proper numbers. 

Can you lock in a shorter term and then do +15% on payments? This like likely get you the furthest ahead

----------


## jutes

Everyone knows rates will go down in 2023. Everyone.

----------


## Buster

> Everyone knows rates will go down in 2023. Everyone.



I see what your did here

----------


## killramos

> Everyone knows rates will go down in 2023. Everyone.



Just need to look at the data

----------


## dirtsniffer

I am missing something

----------


## killramos

You arent

----------


## Buster

> I am missing something



Some posters confuse random guesswork with skill.

----------


## Misterman

> Considering renewing at 4.89 for a 5 year fixed. Can you talk me out of it?



I don't know your personal situation. If I was in the predicament right now, I'd assess how things are going and weigh my risks. BoC seems pretty committed to bringing down inflation. With inflation nowhere near under control, it would seem that likelihood of rates going up is stronger than the likelihood they go down. Best case scenario is rates stay steady, since they can't lower rates without bringing inflation back stronger. So I'd be looking at what the difference in rate was between my variable and the 4.89 fixed I could get. Personally based on my own risk tolerance, I'd probably be ok paying a tiny bit more to get a locked in rate right now, to avoid the potential of my payment going up another $500. If for some reason there is a black swan event where monetary theory just goes out the window and interest rates drop some significant amount in the next couple years, then I would eat the penalty and refinance my mortgage again. The penalty almost becomes moot if the value of my house is going to shoot back up more than the penalty.

- - - Updated - - -




> Some posters confuse random guesswork with skill.



Fortunately "Random guesswork" generally results in better outcomes than blatant ignorance.

----------


## Buster

I recommend not assessing how things are going and not assessing your risks.

----------


## Disoblige

I had someone tell me that they're going to wait until later in 2023 to buy a house when interest rates drop. I didn't know how to respond.

----------


## killramos

Its funny that he doesnt get that random guesswork and blatant ignorance are the same thing

- - - Updated - - -




> I had someone tell me that they're going to wait until later in 2023 to buy a house when interest rates drop. I didn't know how to respond.



Good idea

You will be doing then a kindness

----------


## Buster

I like doing it by astrological signs

----------


## mr2mike

> I had someone tell me that they're going to wait until later in 2023 to buy a house when interest rates drop. I didn't know how to respond.



"can't wait for the housewarming party."

----------


## Misterman

> It’s funny that he doesn’t get that random guesswork and blatant ignorance are the same thing



To the blatantly ignorant I could see how that confusion might be made. 

I was debating starting a hockey bets thread to see if I could get Buster to claim that basic math is all just luck and fairy farts.

----------


## Buster

> To the blatantly ignorant I could see how that confusion might be made. 
> 
> I was debating starting a hockey bets thread to see if I could get Buster to claim that basic math is all just luck and fairy farts.



what does "basic math" have to do with markets?

----------


## Misterman

> what does "basic math" have to do with markets?



Not sure how that relates to the discussion at hand? But obviously you need to be able to do basic math if you're going to figure out your buy and sell points and calculate your returns.

----------


## killramos

figure out buy and sell points lol

Thanks for the laffs

----------


## Buster

We need to resurrect the TA thread.

----------


## max_boost

> I had someone tell me that they're going to wait until later in 2023 to buy a house when interest rates drop. I didn't know how to respond.



I’m just gonna wait until the gf buys one is my new strategy lol 2024 if she moves to Calgary aha

----------


## ExtraSlow

> I’m just gonna wait until the gf buys one is my new strategy lol 2024 if she moves to Calgary aha



Sugar Momma is a beyond approved strategy.

----------


## msommers

It's 2023. Basically the new normal

----------


## mr2mike

> I’m just gonna wait until the gf buys one is my new strategy lol 2024 if she moves to Calgary aha



89Coupe_jr

----------


## max_boost

Vote ndp. Vote raises for nurses lol

----------


## Misterman

> figure out buy and sell points lol
> 
> Thanks for the laffs



I like to appease Buster as he crashes and burns. It's always interesting to see if he'll back out or spin.

----------


## Xtrema

> I’m just gonna wait until the gf buys one is my new strategy lol 2024 if she moves to Calgary aha



Cousin just moved into a chick's place in Burnaby. Save tons on rents. Great strat.

----------


## Buster

> I’m just gonna wait until the gf buys one is my new strategy lol 2024 if she moves to Calgary aha



You got a long distance hustle? Nice

----------


## Pauly Boy

So we are now paying <9% principal on our rental condo as of the last rate hike, lol. 

We have an adjustable rate mortgage (aka variable but payment stays the same, they just reduce the principal/increase the length of term). Term is now 46 years instead of 16 if we keep going at this rate, lolol.

Not concerned since it's a rental & we're hoping to unload it in the near future... Let's hope the market is still up in the spring  :rocket:

----------


## msommers

Calgary Condo Market: A New Hope

Our new mortgage is at 5.95%, the ported mortgage is at 2.59% for another 13 months.

_That_ adjustment isn't going to be fun.

----------


## max_boost

> You got a long distance hustle? Nice



Haha yea she’s from the hat and beyond foodie meet verified lol

Following 
@rage2
 life advice #teamweakrice lol

----------


## Misterman

> So we are now paying <9% principal on our rental condo as of the last rate hike, lol. 
> 
> We have an adjustable rate mortgage (aka variable but payment stays the same, they just reduce the principal/increase the length of term). Term is now 46 years instead of 16 if we keep going at this rate, lolol.
> 
> Not concerned since it's a rental & we're hoping to unload it in the near future... Let's hope the market is still up in the spring



Damn. Isn't there a trigger rate that your payment will jump at a certain point? Thought you'd hit that by now.

----------


## Neil4Speed

> In all seriousness, regret is a tough thing to deal with. So stop it.
> 
> People regret outcomes, which is a dangerous game to play. What you need to do is assess your decision making at the time. Did you make the best possible decision with the information that you had? If you fucked up the decision, then feel free to regret that. If you regret the outcomes, then you're just being a dope who doesn't understand that life is probabilistic and uncertain. People who are willing to embrace the probabilistic and use that as a context for their decision-making get ahead in life. People who demand certainty in life - let's call them "babies" - are eventually going to be at the mercy of those that understand that certainty is fundamentally an impossible goal and to chase it is a fool's errand which will only cost them money and opportunities. You must make predictions in life, we all do it all of the time. However, it is worth distinguishing between situations where predictions may have some utility for you, and situations which are inherently unknowable and thus inherently unpredictable. 
> 
> Did you make the wrong decision with your variable rate? No, you did not. Did you get the best possible outcome? No you did not. Both of these statements can be true.
> 
> Assess your current situation, determine what you can now predict based on your current information. Don't be tricked into thinking you can now know a future unknowable because of your past painful experience and work the current situation as best you can. Or...lapse into being a little bitch like 99% of the population out there who is owned by people who are more evolved in their epistemology.



I feel like I need to print this and put this on my wall. I don't have a printer. I am going to buy one.

----------


## suntan

It's really for his own benefit.

----------


## Pauly Boy

> Damn. Isn't there a trigger rate that your payment will jump at a certain point? Thought you'd hit that by now.



Actually. From what I can surmise from my phone call with CIBC is that there's 2 "triggers" - A trigger rate & a trigger point. Since ~100k is paid off on said condo, the trigger point (using whatever their defaulting to fixed calculation) is very far away. The trigger rate though is when my static payment no longer covers the interest - My options are to either raise the payment amount at that point or they will start applying the difference against my paid off principle to cover it.

Either way, I have a meeting end of the week to go over the documents. We renewed right after the shutdowns so my only concern was cheapest rate + shortest term at the time. In hindsight, prob should have locked into fixed but wanted the flexibility to dump it in case the world was actually ending.

----------


## schurchill39

> Haha yea she’s from the hat and beyond foodie meet verified lol
> 
> Following 
> @rage2
>  life advice #teamweakrice lol



From the Hat eh? As someone from there, just watch out for the crazies, and in some cases: meth. If she doesn't want to leave the hat I would be concerned about 1 or both of those things. The only other possible reason for not wanting to move away is an uncomfortably close relationship with her parents. YMMV

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## flipstah

> I feel like I need to print this and put this on my wall. I don't have a printer. I am going to buy one.



What if it was a song format?

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## max_boost

> From the Hat eh? As someone from there, just watch out for the crazies, and in some cases: meth. If she doesn't want to leave the hat I would be concerned about 1 or both of those things. The only other possible reason for not wanting to move away is an uncomfortably close relationship with her parents. YMMV



Lol glad none of that applies. She’s really awesome tho. Hoping she gets employment in Calgary  :Big Grin:

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## msommers

AHS is a royal pain in the ass, especially for OOP. But if she's willing to work a bunch of part-time/casual pick up shifts (I think they call it like a .4 or .6), she'll definitely get full-time hours at the hospital.

Doing that for a bit seems to be the most consistent way to finding full-time positions with AHS. Naturally private clinics are different but very competitive.

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## max_boost

She’s full time + OT in the hat and also works at corrections too. Hardest working person I know and somehow finds energy on off days to drive 3 hours to hang out with me  :Shock:   :crazy nut:  anyway it’s refreshing to date someone with a career lol

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## msommers

Oh shit missed she was in AB. That's dope man, you deserve an independent woman!

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## spike98

> She’s full time + OT in the hat and also works at corrections too.l



As someone that was born and raised in the hat, i would say this isn't conclusive for no meth or crazy. In fact, i would say there is a high likelihood of one for sure. I probably even know her.

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## max_boost

Aha dang lots of breaking bad in the hat !

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## Tik-Tok

> anyway it’s refreshing to date someone with a career lol



Gold digging is a career. I think they preferred to be called "Realtors" though.

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## max_boost

> From the Hat eh? As someone from there, just watch out for the crazies, and in some cases: meth. If she doesn't want to leave the hat I would be concerned about 1 or both of those things. The only other possible reason for not wanting to move away is an uncomfortably close relationship with her parents. YMMV



Btw what does uncomfortably close mean lol just curious haha

I shared with her these comments and she agreed that there’s a drug thing with fentanyl as well. She assured me she’s not crazy and does not do meths and doesn’t have uncomfortably close relations with family hahaha

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## arcticcat522

> I shared with her these comments and she agreed that there’s a drug thing with fentanyl as well. She assured me she’s not crazy and does not do meths and doesn’t have uncomfortably close relations with family hahaha



Thats what I would say too......hahaha

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## schurchill39

> As someone that was born and raised in the hat, i would say this isn't conclusive for no meth or crazy. In fact, i would say there is a high likelihood of one for sure. I probably even know her.



My fellow hatter knows whats up. 




> Btw what does uncomfortably close mean lol just curious haha



Calls her parents or gets calls from her parents multiple times a day. Sees them nearly as much as if she was still living with them. For people with kids I'd say that the grandparents raise the kids as much as the parents do but thats obviously not her case.

Good chance 
@spike98
 and I know her if she grew up there. But if you're saying she wants to leave the hat maybe you've got one of the okay ones. Wouldn't hurt to piss test her though for the meth thing  :dunno:

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## max_boost

Interesting interesting. Her 3 best friends moved out of the Hat couple years ago and live in Calgary. They all seem quite normal and mature for mid 20s white girls  :Big Grin:

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## ercchry

I’m more concerned about these two potentially knowing her… that means they were what? Cruising the elementary schools when they still lived in the hat?  :ROFL!:

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## msommers

This derail Just. Got. Interesting.

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## suntan

Where the hell are the nudes.

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## haggis88

> Calls her parents or gets calls from her parents multiple times a day. Sees them nearly as much as if she was still living with them. For people with kids I'd say that the grandparents raise the kids as much as the parents do but thats obviously not her case.:




i think this is an Alberta wide thing tbh, it's fucking weird

Born and raised Albertans are a strange strange breed

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## spike98

> Im more concerned about these two potentially knowing her that means they were what? Cruising the elementary schools when they still lived in the hat?



Its an odd thing with the hat really. In my 40 years, i have lived outside of here for only 6. My parents were here since they were teenagers. Because of that, there is really only a degree or two of separation from pretty much everyone in the city. So maybe not her directly, but siblings probably, parents, likely.

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## Buster

So two beyonders shared some pie? I don't even know what's going on here.

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## spike98

> So two beyonders shared some pie? I don't even know what's going on here.



3. Me, schurchill39, and max-boost are eskimo brothers.

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## haggis88

Mortgage chat:

I'm getting a $54 refund for a mortgage I had in 2015 because they added "undisclosed" fees to it.

Stonks

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## ExtraSlow

> 3. Me, schurchill39, and max-boost are eskimo brothers.

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## max_boost

Next beyond foodie meet she attends gotta make sure my Eskimo bros are there too  :Big Grin:  I’ll see if she can bring her friends as well.  :Big Grin: 

- - - Updated - - -




> This derail Just. Got. Interesting.



And entertaining! Rep pts! Lol haha

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## ExtraSlow

We need a "bring your side-piece" foodie meet. Probably have to hold it in airdrie.

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## mr2mike

Aspen is Ashley Madison country.
And close to everything.

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## killramos

> We need a "bring your side-piece" foodie meet. Probably have to hold it in airdrie.



If this is your way of asking me to come to dinner…

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## ExtraSlow

> If this is your way of asking me to come to dinner…



***blush***

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## vengie

I'll leave my garage door open at least 6"  :Love:

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## schurchill39

> Its an odd thing with the hat really. In my 40 years, i have lived outside of here for only 6. My parents were here since they were teenagers. Because of that, there is really only a degree or two of separation from pretty much everyone in the city. So maybe not her directly, but siblings probably, parents, likely.



I agree with this. I am early 30's but with siblings and friends with siblings there is always someone you know or knows someone else especially because there is only 55-60k people. The only exception was if they went to Hat High because for some reason that school was a black hole of only ever hanging out with themselves unless they were in sports. I moved away when I was 18 and worked out of there for a few summers but my whole family still lives there. My sister or brother still ask me if I remember such and such from school/hockey/places one of us worked. Everyone knows everyones business. Hell, half the people who were dating eachother in highschool just ended up swapping partners to get married. Its a weird meth infested place.

Welcome to the Eskimo brotherhood. Your commemorative t-shirt should arrive in the mail in 2-4 weeks.

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## max_boost

Haha just showed her that. She went to Hat high  :Big Grin: 

Did you go to McCoy?

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## schurchill39

Although that does unfortunately preclude us from being eskimo brothers (with her at least), it doesn't make any of the other possibilities less likely. Stay safe

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## mr2mike

Keep digging you'll find person 0 for the coldsores.

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## Rocket1k78

> She assured me shes not crazy



You got a lot to learn lol See below




> Thats what I would say too......hahaha










> Calls her parents or gets calls from her parents multiple times a day. Sees them nearly as much as if she was still living with them. For people with kids I'd say that the grandparents raise the kids as much as the parents do but thats obviously not her case.



This is my BIL and im sure it was a huge factor on why hes divorced now.

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## max_boost

Haha time will tell. To living dangerously lol

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## Hallowed_point

> i think this is an Alberta wide thing tbh, it's fucking weird
> 
> Born and raised Albertans are a strange strange breed



QFT, as a Vancouver Islander ..yeah we've got our own quirks but Albertans are weird with their families.

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## riander5

> QFT, as a Vancouver Islander ..yeah we've got our own quirks but Albertans are weird with their families.



Are you guys saying being close with your families is wierd?

What an odd view on life. My kids are only toddlers but hell i hope I get to see / talk to them more than once a week when they grow up. I guess time will tell.

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## max_boost

They never lived with 3 generations in a household. Never experienced that immigrant life lol

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## Hallowed_point

> They never lived with 3 generations in a household. Never experienced that immigrant life lol



 :ROFL!:  damn straight!! I love my family, but talk to my dad once or twice a year. Don't need to "catch up" with any family member on a daily or weekly/monthly basis unless there is actual news.

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## msommers

If being close with your family is weird, consider 95% of the global population weird.

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## suntan

My kids love their grandparents more than us.

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## Buster

> My kids love their grandparents more than us.



Least surprising news I've heard today.

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## ExtraSlow

> My kids love their grandparents more than us.






> Least surprising news I've heard today.



Best pair of posts in the thread.

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## killramos

weird, random family members dropping in on you 2-3 times a day and way too into your business is why I don't speak to most of my family on Vancouver island.

0 boundaries.

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## suntan

My kids are teens, I'm fairly sure I'm at the bottom of the list of people they like. Unless they need a ride.

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## TomcoPDR

> weird, random family members dropping in on you 2-3 times a day and way too into your business is why I don't speak to most of my family on Vancouver island.
> 
> 0 boundaries.



Got a cousin name Ramos?

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## killramos

Several. But they don’t live in Canada.

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## Misterman

> Oh shit missed she was in AB. That's dope man, you deserve an independent woman!



The Hat is to Alberta, as Quebec is to Canada. We like to pretend its just not a part of us.






> i think this is an Alberta wide thing tbh, it's fucking weird
> 
> Born and raised Albertans are a strange strange breed



The weird thing is that you've apparently seen this enough to somehow tie it to Albertans. Certainly doesn't check out with me or any of my Alberta born friends.

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## Darkane

The family ties thing isnt an Alberta thing - seen in Saskatchewan a lot, too. 

Tough to say, I wonder if its a generational thing, IE: millennials are useless and seek constant support. 

And the boomers enable it. Shrug. 

Not everyone is like that 
@haggis88

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## R-Audi

What a wonderful time to have a mortgage come up for renewal. Scotia just sent me their initial offer and it isnt looking great!

2 yr: 6.2%
3 yr: 5.78%
4 yr: 5.78%
5 yr: 5.81%
5 Yr Variable: P-0.05%

Needless to say I will have to start shopping around.

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## max_boost

Those are 2005 offers lol blast from the past for me

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## ExtraSlow

> What a wonderful time to have a mortgage come up for renewal. Scotia just sent me their initial offer and it isnt looking great!
> 
> 2 yr: 6.2%
> 3 yr: 5.78%
> 4 yr: 5.78%
> 5 yr: 5.81%
> 5 Yr Variable: P-0.05%
> 
> Needless to say I will have to start shopping around.






> Full Feature Rates up to 120 day rate protection Starting at:
> 
> 3 Year Fixed - 4.99% * High Ratio
> 5 Year Fixed - 4.74% to 5.19% * High Ratio
> 5 Year Fixed - 4.94% to 5.79% * Conventional
> 5 Year ARM/VRM - 5.50% - 6.00%



There I saved you one phone call.

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## msommers

Quick glance TD looks better than Scotia.

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## 88CRX

> What a wonderful time to have a mortgage come up for renewal. Scotia just sent me their initial offer and it isnt looking great!
> 
> 2 yr: 6.2%
> 3 yr: 5.78%
> 4 yr: 5.78%
> 5 yr: 5.81%
> 5 Yr Variable: P-0.05%
> 
> Needless to say I will have to start shopping around.



Yea RBC is peddling similar renewal rates for us too.

2 year = 5.77% 
3 year = 5.6%
5 year = 5.64% 
5 year, variable = 6.18%

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## vengie

I'm due in August this year...  :Guns:

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## suntan

Four years away.

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## roopi

> Yea RBC is peddling similar renewal rates for us too.
> 
> 2 year = 5.77% 
> 3 year = 5.6%
> 5 year = 5.64% 
> 5 year, variable = 6.18%



That 5 year variable  :Confused:

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## ExtraSlow

If we follow killys rules, then all mortgages are optional if we cheese to reallocate funds from our investment portfolios.

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## msommers

Seems like most 5-year variables are P - 0.25% (roughly).

Surely the banks are anticipating a drop in Prime in 5 years.

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## Tik-Tok

> If we follow killys rules, then all mortgages are optional if we cheese to reallocate funds from our investment portfolios.



I'm not touching my cheese fund.

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## Disoblige

Gl everyone renewing this year  :Guns:

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## Xtrema

> Gl everyone renewing this year



Luck? As in praying bank prime won't hit 7.5%

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## Disoblige

I'll start worrying if we hit double digit prime. Until then, cut down on the double meat.

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## killramos

> If we follow killys rules, then all mortgages are optional if we cheese to reallocate funds from our investment portfolios.



Accurate

If Im going to pay 7% interest, I sure as fuck would be finding a way to write it off.

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## suntan

Oh shit Picard Maneuver viable again.

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## ExtraSlow

> Oh shit Picard Maneuver viable again.



Make it so.

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## Misterman

> Yea RBC is peddling similar renewal rates for us too.
> 
> 2 year = 5.77% 
> 3 year = 5.6%
> 5 year = 5.64% 
> 5 year, variable = 6.18%



Interesting that RBC is forecasting rates to drop. Wonder when they expect that to happen?

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## Buster

> Interesting that RBC is forecasting rates to drop. Wonder when they expect that to happen?



lol

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## max_boost

> Interesting that RBC is forecasting rates to drop. Wonder when they expect that to happen?



And let us know what you plan to do with the information

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## suntan

> Interesting that RBC is forecasting rates to drop. Wonder when they expect that to happen?



Every bank's forecast says rates will drop. Where have you been?

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## ExtraSlow

It's easy to time the market.

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## 88CRX

> Interesting that RBC is forecasting rates to drop. Wonder when they expect that to happen?



Here's all their current discounted rates. 

1 year = 5.99%
2 year = 5.77%
3 year = 5.6%
4 year = 5.59%
5 year = 5.64%
7 year = 5.94%
10 year = 6.39%

Not sure if they're in line with the other big banks. But yea rates are going down.... eventually.... maybe.

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## Misterman

> And let us know what you plan to do with the information



I plan to ride out my 2.43% for the next 3.5 years RBC's guess that rates might drop 0.5% isn't going to have any effect on what I do, nor is it information though.

- - - Updated - - -




> It's easy to time the market.



Sure was in this case. We don't always get lucky with massive heads up though. 






> Here's all their current discounted rates. 
> 
> 1 year = 5.99%
> 2 year = 5.77%
> 3 year = 5.6%
> 4 year = 5.59%
> 5 year = 5.64%
> 7 year = 5.94%
> 10 year = 6.39%
> ...



?? Is there something that ties into my comment hiding here?

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## killramos

lol is right

----------


## 89coupe

> What a wonderful time to have a mortgage come up for renewal. Scotia just sent me their initial offer and it isnt looking great!
> 
> 2 yr: 6.2%
> 3 yr: 5.78%
> 4 yr: 5.78%
> 5 yr: 5.81%
> 5 Yr Variable: P-0.05%
> 
> Needless to say I will have to start shopping around.



I have brokers sending me rates way lower.

PM if you want their contact info.

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## sabad66

> I'm due in August this year...



December for me. Fml

----------


## Brent.ff

So to confirm, the great market reader paid 2.43 1.5 years ago when they were offering between 1.7 and 2.3…

----------


## Buster

> So to confirm, the great market reader paid 2.43 1.5 years ago when they were offering between 1.7 and 2.3…



and doesn't understand what an inverted yield curve is.

----------


## ExtraSlow



----------


## max_boost

> So to confirm, the great market reader paid 2.43 1.5 years ago when they were offering between 1.7 and 2.3…



Could he have signed a 4 year deal say 6 months ago lol

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## killramos

> So to confirm, the great market reader paid 2.43 1.5 years ago when they were offering between 1.7 and 2.3…



You clearly didn’t understand the research.

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## Misterman

> So to confirm, the great market reader paid 2.43 1.5 years ago when they were offering between 1.7 and 2.3…



Not sure about any of that. But the guy who pays attention to market conditions and uses available info to make as informed a decision as he can, paid the best available rate offered by the broker for a 5 year fixed at the time. 





> and doesn't understand what an inverted yield curve is.



Oh please do tell. lol this should be good.

----------


## Buster



----------


## R-Audi

> I have brokers sending me rates way lower.
> 
> PM if you want their contact info.



 Done, thanks!

----------


## Brent.ff

> Not sure about any of that. But the guy who pays attention to market conditions and uses available info to make as informed a decision as he can, paid the best available rate offered by the broker for a 5 year fixed at the time.



Guy who 'pays attention to available info' didn't note that there was cheaper rates offered by the Beyond broker to negotiate off of and made the 'informed' decision of overpaying for fixed at the time. Yes, you're ahead of me on rate since I'm on variable, but this whole 'i timed the market' is hilarious when I was getting offers for 1.9 at the same time to swap from variable to fixed (and regrettably didnt take it).

----------


## Kloubek

> Guy who 'pays attention to available info' didn't note that there was cheaper rates offered by the Beyond broker to negotiate off of and made the 'informed' decision of overpaying for fixed at the time. Yes, you're ahead of me on rate since I'm on variable, but this whole 'i timed the market' is hilarious when I was getting offers for 1.9 at the same time to swap from variable to fixed (and regrettably didnt take it).



So, you planning on staying variable and seeing it through?

I'm still variable, with hopes that the economy will improve. Given the seemingly endless state of the war in Ukraine though and a looming recession (which usually lowers rates if anything), I'm just waiting to see what happens. I'm almost certain we'll continue to see some pain before it gets better though. 

It's a longer-term play for us, considering we signed right before everything went to shit.

----------


## Misterman

> Guy who 'pays attention to available info' didn't note that there was cheaper rates offered by the Beyond broker to negotiate off of and made the 'informed' decision of overpaying for fixed at the time. Yes, you're ahead of me on rate since I'm on variable, but this whole 'i timed the market' is hilarious when I was getting offers for 1.9 at the same time to swap from variable to fixed (and regrettably didnt take it).



Sorry about your "luck".

----------


## Brent.ff

> So, you planning on staying variable and seeing it through?
> 
> I'm still variable, with hopes that the economy will improve. Given the seemingly endless state of the war in Ukraine though and a looming recession (which usually lowers rates if anything), I'm just waiting to see what happens. I'm almost certain we'll continue to see some pain before it gets better though. 
> 
> It's a longer-term play for us, considering we signed right before everything went to shit.



Im a year out from renewal. Sticking with it. I think in the 5 year time frame since this mortgage im still ahead or even so not too salty. Not looking forward to my renewal!

----------


## schurchill39

> So, you planning on staying variable and seeing it through?
> 
> I'm still variable, with hopes that the economy will improve. Given the seemingly endless state of the war in Ukraine though and a looming recession (which usually lowers rates if anything), I'm just waiting to see what happens. I'm almost certain we'll continue to see some pain before it gets better though. 
> 
> It's a longer-term play for us, considering we signed right before everything went to shit.



Us too. We are variable and sure hindsight being 20/20 we would have been better to sign a fixed mortgage but I still think there is mostly upside to a variable mortgage over the full 5 year term. Thankfully we're in a position where the ~$1000 increase in monthly cost hasn't been too hard to absorb (despite it still sucking).

----------

