# Lounge > Real Estate / Finance >  Oil Price MEGA THREAD - Yeah baby it's MEGA

## ExtraSlow

I'm sick of the $4.44 oil price thread. And with Brent crude over $100/bbl today, it's time to start a MEGA THREAD. Don't act like you didn't want this.

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## arcticcat522

Predict the high oil price over this year....$138

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## vengie

I don't want this.

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## killramos

Thanks Vlad

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## suntan

Medium term this is not a good thing.

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## ExtraSlow

> I don't want this.



Don't act like that.

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## vengie

> Don't act like that.



You're right. 
I'm no longer on the D&C side...

Make it rain baby.

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## killramos

A wise man once said

“Oil is dead”

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## LilDrunkenSmurf

Time to get back into O&G.

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## suntan

Good time to get a job.

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## ExtraSlow

> Time to get back into O&G.



I'll let you know when I start eating double meat subs.

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## pheoxs

> I'll let you know when I start eating double meat subs.



You're behind on the times.

Subway announces roll out of triple meat option in select Alberta locations

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## ShermanEF9

> I don't want this.



My short term wallet does not want this.

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## Swank

> You're behind on the times.
> 
> Subway announces roll out of triple meat option in select Alberta locations



Got me, love it  :ROFL!:

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## finboy

> Time to get back into O&G.



Tempting, lol

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## Darkane

> You're behind on the times.
> 
> Subway announces roll out of triple meat option in select Alberta locations



Trolled me hard there. 

Tried repping you, need to spread yada yada yada

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## redline

Honkie bois better get home pipe is not going haul itself 

Better buy stock in CAT cause the shortage of heavy equipment is going to get real

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## ExtraSlow

Which pipe?

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## nzwasp

I know they aren't officially correlated but what's the expectation of premium gas price by end of March? $2 per L

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## killramos

More than you can afford pal

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## Xtrema

> I know they aren't officially correlated but what's the expectation of premium gas price by end of March? $2 per L



The only thing you can bet on is 3c more of carbon tax is coming on Apr 1st.

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## ThePenIsMightier

$1.80 this morning in Vancouver.
*For REGULAR...

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## Twin_Cam_Turbo

The solution is don’t be poor.

I also use Costco fuel in my shitbox.

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## redline

> The solution is don’t be poor.
> 
> I also use Costco fuel in my shitbox.



 Costco is top tier gas …

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## troyl

Wow WTI up ~$10/bbl $105!

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## vengie

I won't lie, I had a double meat and double cheese sub today...

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## killramos

> I won't lie, I had a double meat and double cheese sub today...



I had a double meat viet sub! That’s living!

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## ExtraSlow

> I won't lie, I had a double meat and double cheese sub today...



Braggart. (jelly)

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## ExtraSlow

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/devon-ce...-oil-1.1730169

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## suntan

Biden and the current WH administration are a bunch of morons, so this isn't surprising.

Strangely, Alberta is now part of OPEC+, so I guess that's good for us.

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## Xtrema

> https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/devon-ce...-oil-1.1730169



https://financialpost.com/commoditie...ng-keystone-xl

Been landing on deaf ears ever since he ask OPEC for more oil meanwhile you get all the access you want in Canada. 

Part of me thinks it's punitive since the Chinese is playing in our backyard.

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## ExtraSlow

Don't tell coupe we have a mega thread.

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## r3ccOs

Having stayed in touch with my friend at Cenvous, CNRL etc.. I'm glad to see that nobody is urgently lighting up capital projects, land plays or major acquisitions.

Being cashflow positive and liquid over the most uncertain period of Petrochem is kinda a smart move

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## ExtraSlow

Currently you can still buy assets for less than drilling new wells. There will be some more consolidation coming before huge capital budget increases. 
Service companies will need to raise prices next. 20-40% depending on the market segment is my guess.

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## r3ccOs

> Currently you can still buy assets for less than drilling new wells. There will be some more consolidation coming before huge capital budget increases. 
> Service companies will need to raise prices next. 20-40% depending on the market segment is my guess.



100% labour, logistics, consumables...

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## schurchill39

> Currently you can still buy assets for less than drilling new wells. There will be some more consolidation coming before huge capital budget increases. 
> Service companies will need to raise prices next. 20-40% depending on the market segment is my guess.



I'd say your guess is probably pretty spot on. I know we have a few guys a little closer to the dollars and cents on the board here but I'm hearing targets for frac being of 20% increase for long term contacts and one off/spot work being 40% plus. Service rigs are poised for a 25% or so increase along with all the other auxilliary services. I'm too far removed from drilling to know what costs look like there but lots of chatter is happening.

Lots of my contacts are talking about keeping D&C plans relatively flat or only a minor uptick until price increases have been realized

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## killramos

*Halliburton announces it has bought out the entirety of stadium for Super Bowl 2023*

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## ExtraSlow

> I'd say your guess is probably pretty spot on. I know we have a few guys a little closer to the dollars and cents on the board here but I'm hearing targets for frac being of 20% increase for long term contacts and one off/spot work being 40% plus. Service rigs are poised for a 25% or so increase along with all the other auxilliary services. I'm too far removed from drilling to know what costs look like there but lots of chatter is happening.
> 
> Lots of my contacts are talking about keeping D&C plans relatively flat or only a minor uptick until price increases have been realized



I have a view into a pretty narrow market niche, but I can say that field service providers are very busy and need to buy more equipment, materials and parts to maintain current activity levels, let alone any increase in activity. Some smaller service providers are confident enough to order long-lead materials that won't be field-ready until Q4. And prices have gone up substantially in the last year. That kind of confidence has been really rare for a very long time. Handy for me, I have a couple deals on some long-lead items that could make my boss happy.

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## suntan

We have lots of service providers as clients and they've been busy for quite a while.

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## ExtraSlow

Yes.

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## ExtraSlow

Multistage Horizontal Hydraulic Fracturing socks.

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## ThePenIsMightier

> Multistage Horizontal Hydraulic Fracturing socks.



That's awesome!
Next buy some that show a little ankle. I couldn't finish...

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## killramos

So OPEC is open season. Should be fun.

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## ExtraSlow

Shits going to get REALLY crazy when people realize OPEN can't easily raise production. Buy your $200 calls now.

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## DonJuan

> Multistage Horizontal Hydraulic Fracturing socks. 
> [ATTACH=CONFIG][/ATTACH]



NGL, that gave me a chill. Where does one acquire those?

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## ExtraSlow

Can't buy these days AFAIK. One run was made a few years ago and they sold out.

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## 16hypen3sp

I wonder if trudeau would wear those socks. He's a socks guy isn't he? He would see colorful socks and head to the latest photo op.

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## DonJuan

> I wonder if trudeau would wear those socks. He's a socks guy isn't he? He would see colorful socks and head to the latest photo op.



If only we could get him to wear pipeline socks.

Or a big refinery sock.

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## SJW

> I won't lie, I had a double meat and double cheese sub today...



So did your wife.

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## vengie

> So did your wife.



I definitely did feed her my foot long that night.

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## Swank

> I definitely did feed her my foot long that night.



That's fister talk.

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## Buster

Jesus you guys.

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## killramos

> Umm, Language!



What he meant

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## Disoblige

> I definitely did feed her my foot long that night.



Were you the meaty one or cheesy one?

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## SJW

> Were you the meaty one or cheesy one?



Yes

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## nzwasp

> Shits going to get REALLY crazy when people realize OPEC can't easily raise production. Buy your $200 calls now.



Looks like you were right on this OPEC already backing down.

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## ExtraSlow

Their words make great headlines, but honest to god, they just don't have the technical ability to raise production quickly. Many of their members have not been producing their full quota amount for ages now. In some member countries it's harder to increase production than in others, but normally one country can't overproduce to make up for one members underproduction. Or they aren't supposed to. 

Even the Saudis can't just turn on much more than a few percentage points of an increase. Good time to be selling drilling equipment to those countries I guess. I should make a few calls . . . .

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## nzwasp

How much oil for opec did russia produce?

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## suntan

zero.

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## nzwasp

I thought they were a member of opec+ but I guess thats not what this was?

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## Xtrema

> How much oil for opec did russia produce?



That's not how OPEC works.

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## 89coupe

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...es-deal-2022-3

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## ExtraSlow

Makes a lot of sense for both parties.

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## Buster

Good for Canada

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## vengie

When yuan door closes, another opens.

#doublemeatdreams

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## ExtraSlow

Shits going to get wild when people figure out that OPEC has essentially zero spare capacity.
Not an amazing article, but worth understanding.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...ealed.amp.html

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## killramos

Oil up over 2 bucks on ES’s comments alone!

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## ExtraSlow

So globally, any growth in production will need to come from the Permian Basin? Whoooo boy that's going to be MUCH harder than this article makes it sound. The Permian has been aggressively high-graded for years. Most of the undrilled locations are a significant step back in quality. Breakeven prices are going nowhere but up for that whole basin because of that fact. 
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2...permian-basin/

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## ExtraSlow

https://www.oilystuffblog.com/chart-stuff
Production per foot is declining.

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## ExtraSlow

Permian running out of top-tier locations? Seems like it would happen eventually. This guy has a perticular view, but he's probably not far off.
https://www.oilystuffblog.com/chart-stuff




> From my perspective as a casual observer of the tight oil phenomena it is incredible how poor the analysis is of the future of tight oil, particularly in the Permian Basin. Granted many making these analyses, these predictions, come from a background of economics, or worse (if there is such a thing), but still. The assumption that past performance is indicative of future results astounds me. Nevertheless, most ANALysts continue to assume all tight oil wells are the same and that depletion has nothing whatsoever to do with the future. 
> 
> If in 2018 the average tight oil EUR in the Midland Basin was 431K BO, for instance, they'll keep drilling the same kind of wells for the next 20 years. Like cans of coca cola out of a vending machine.
> 
> Here is an example of why that is not true. In the chart above we see where EOG is been hammering its position in Lea County, New Mexico, in the Wolfcamp and Bone Springs formations, and how its well quality, and ensuing EUR's, are going down the toilet. Fast. Given the density of EOG wells it seems likely that most of this decline in well productivity has be from over-drilling and pressure depletion. It all seems simple enough to me, and requires little extra research, but nobody does it. They are part of the bait ball. 
> 
> By the by, I would challenge anyone to find 5% of total wells drilled to date in Lea County that were longer than 10,000 feet in length; they simply do not exist. If you look at the well densities in Lea County drilled on <10K feet (two sections) you'll be hard pressed to even find a place to drill a 15K ft. + lateral, regardless of nearby drainage and potential recoverable oil let in place, regardless of bench. 
> *
> When I see this I get concerned. And I get pissed off about exporting 70% of all Permian tight oil production to foreign countries, as those we have, in America, unlimited tight oil resources and can spare it.
> ...

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## mr2mike

> NGL, that gave me a chill. Where does one acquire those?






> Can't buy these days AFAIK. One run was made a few years ago and they sold out.



Maybe a new run but with more stages? Clusters too?

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## ExtraSlow

Libya dropping a few hundred thousand barrels a day of exports due to "rebels"

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...rts-and-fields

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## ThePenIsMightier

Rebels?

_So just let me revel and bask
In the fact that I got everyone kissing my ass
And it's a disaster, such a catastrophe
For you to see so damn much of my assyou asked for me?_

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## schurchill39

I hear Exxon is selling their stake in Yemen and the FSO Safer if you want Rebels as partners.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/22/opini...ddy/index.html

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## mr2mike

Suncor getting pressured by Elliot investments to make changes.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...r-overhaul-at/

If you dig not that deep. Elliot is in bed with the Hess family. Google Hess. USA oil and gas company. Hmm...
Another new version of wrecking international competition?

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## ExtraSlow

One of my first jobs involved me visiting former Amerada Hess facilities. I like Hess.

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## 90_Shelby

> Suncor getting pressured by Elliot investments to make changes.
> https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...r-overhaul-at/
> 
> If you dig not that deep. Elliot is in bed with the Hess family. Google Hess. USA oil and gas company. Hmm...
> Another new version of wrecking international competition?



Based on the market response, I’ll take one of these letters every week please. Up 11% today.

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## ExtraSlow

Activist investors are a net benefit to the market. I have no opinion on this particular case.

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## ExtraSlow

Long term, once the "war" with Russia is over, how much of russian oil export capacity will be damaged/destroyed in the long term? How much underinvestment is happening this year, that will show impacts in 1-2-3 years? 

I haven't read an analysis I really trust on this topic, but people are working to answer this question. Could be a couple million barrels a day of oil not available for the global market. That's a significant amount of the truly available capacity out there. Markets are made at the margins after all. 

Could be extremely bullish for long term pricing. Don't expect demand to go down much.

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## ExtraSlow

Lack of spare capacity in OPEC? Leshockface.gif


https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/econom...-capacity-woes

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## ThePenIsMightier

Iraq, Libya and Nigeria are the homes of responsible resource development and champions of environmental stewardship.
-Hair Justin

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## mr2mike

Their homes are built from renewable aerial weapons all stuck together.

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## JohnnyHockey13

> Iraq, Libya and Nigeria are the homes of responsible resource development and champions of environmental stewardship.
> -Hair Justin



You're bald IRL aren't you?... anyways thought it was weird to trash the guy for this one thing when there are so many other reasons, same thing with the socks.

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## ThePenIsMightier

> You're bald IRL aren't you?... anyways thought it was weird to trash the guy for this one thing when there are so many other reasons, same thing with the socks.



I don't know who bald IRL is, so I guess I'm not him..?..

I alternate between calling him Heir/Hair/Herr Justin and have been since the Conservative ads Harper did against him.
"He's just not ready. Nice hair, though."

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## ExtraSlow

Eric Nutall says  :rocket:  :rocket:  :rocket: 

https://financialpost.com/commoditie...e-eric-nuttall

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## suntan

Eric Nutter amirite?

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## nzwasp

Glad I bought into his fund earlier in the year, prob the only green thing across my portfolios.

If this does come true Im not looking forward to the $4 per Litre gas we would be paying but I guess its acceptable if the govt debt gets wiped out.

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## ExtraSlow

I'd take $10/L gasoline for the associated benefits.

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## ExtraSlow

https://financialpost.com/commoditie...-coming-months

Shit is going to get very real when the world figures out that OPEC has nearly no ability to increase production. 

$200 oil by Stampede 2023 bay-bee.

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## killramos

You can hedge WTI north of 100CAD out to the end of 2024+ right now.

That’s a very comfortable place for companies to consider long term planning on big projects.

Even if you don’t hedge as a matter of principe the forward curve printing in places that are solid for projects make even very large pills easier to swallow.

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## vengie

I'm excited. 
Are you guys excited?

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## killramos

As a rule I don’t get excited.

Takes the edge off for sure though.

Great trickle down effects to Calgary economy too, if it holds in.

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## suntan

> https://financialpost.com/commoditie...-coming-months
> 
> Shit is going to get very real when the world figures out that OPEC has nearly no ability to increase production. 
> 
> $200 oil by Stampede 2023 bay-bee.



There's a wheel in the picture.

Left-loosy right?

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## vengie

> As a rule I don’t get excited.
> 
> Takes the edge off for sure though.
> 
> Great trickle down effects to Calgary economy too, if it holds in.



Need to pay for $87bn in climate initiatives somehow!

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## killramos

> Need to pay for $87bn in climate initiatives somehow!



Yea. There won’t be that much trickle down.

Someone needs to say no to Jyoti on this one

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## vengie

Poor attitude comrade. 
We must donate all of our earnings to ensure this EMERGENCY is mitigated.

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## Darkane

> Poor attitude comrade. 
> We must donate all of our earnings to ensure this EMERGENCY is mitigated.



Meanwhile in China:

https://www.newscientist.com/article...er-plants/amp/




> Its a mixed story. Everywhere outside of China, plans for new coal-fired power plants have been scaled back dramatically, says one of the reports authors, Lauri Myllyvirta at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. However, Chinese firms have continued to announce new coal-fired power stations and there is very clear government backing for that. Thats a worrying sign.

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## mr2mike

China's hipsters like the retro energy product. It's organic and vintage. 


ExtraSlow has forgotten about this kind of talk back in 2014

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## schurchill39

> I'm excited. 
> Are you guys excited?



Just in time for me to make my return! Double meat subs on Extra slow!

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## vengie

> Just in time for me to make my return! Double meat subs on Extra slow!



In.
It's always better when someone else buys.

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## mr2mike

Glad US can help out Venezuelan Oil.  :facepalm: 
Canada is not in the picture. 

"Italian oil company Eni SpA and Spain's Repsol SA could begin shipping Venezuelan oil to Europe as soon as next month to make up for Russian crude, five people familiar with the matter said, resuming oil-for-debt swaps halted two years ago when Washington stepped up sanctions on Venezuela. "

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...es-2022-06-05/

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## Mogg

> You can hedge WTI north of 100CAD out to the end of 2024+ right now.
> 
> Thats a very comfortable place for companies to consider long term planning on big projects.
> 
> Even if you dont hedge as a matter of principe the forward curve printing in places that are solid for projects make even very large pills easier to swallow.



Where are you seeing $100+? I'm hearing and seeing more in the ~$80 range. 

Point remains the same but im just curious where you are getting $100+ from. 

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quot...SM24/contracts

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## killramos

CAD

Not USD

FX is quite wide still despite the high oil prices.

June 1 strip ( most recent I have handy ) has December 2024 WTI at 98 CAD.

My general point was even with the backwardation there is lots of room to make money on long term projects.

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## mr2mike

> Where are you seeing $100+? I'm hearing and seeing more in the ~$80 range. 
> 
> Point remains the same but im just curious where you are getting $100+ from. 
> 
> https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quot...SM24/contracts



Click any of the prices to see charts.
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/

Also seeing WCS differential widening. $19 spread recently. Used to be about $12.

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## ExtraSlow

Eric Nutall is my favourite.

https://financialpost.com/commoditie...-oil-bull-case

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## schurchill39

> Eric Nutall is my favourite.
> 
> https://financialpost.com/commoditie...-oil-bull-case



Music to my ears!

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## killramos

High oil prices are my favourite form of money printing. The value generating kind.

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## vengie

My wallet is ready.

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## killramos

Prison Wallet?

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## ExtraSlow

I need my next job quickly so I can cash in on this properly.

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## ZenOps

If the USA pumps the strategic reserve at this rate - it should be empty in what? 8 months?

Maybe we did hit peak oil years ago and noone bothered to tell JimBob about it. Might explain why Biden was on a bicycle.

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## mr2mike

Was Biden on a bicycle or was he on the ground?
Seems like he fell. Poor geriatric, watch those hips.

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## ExtraSlow

> Shits going to get wild when people figure out that OPEC has essentially zero spare capacity.
> Not an amazing article, but worth understanding.
> https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...ealed.amp.html



https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...-Week.amp.html

OPEC is no longer a market force.

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## richardchan2002



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## suntan

EU: Please cut NG consumption 15% over the next 8 months. Okthanxbye.

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## ZenOps

Europe is definitely a little bit in panic mode.

Will the European central bank raise rates back to 0% from negative? Definite maybe. But they could also just go straight for insanity and raise to positive rates.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/21/euro...-11-years.html

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-ec...interest-rates

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## msommers

Repsol sold Chauvin assets to Teine today for $400MM

https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...gy-2022-09-06/

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## schurchill39

> Repsol sold Chauvin assets to Teine today for $400MM
> 
> https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...gy-2022-09-06/



It won't be long before they are entirely out of Canada. They've be a total shit show for years now where the Canadian division is just limping along or supporting other geographic regions.

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## mr2mike

> If the USA pumps the strategic reserve at this rate - it should be empty in what? 8 months?
> 
> Maybe we did hit peak oil years ago and noone bothered to tell JimBob about it. Might explain why Biden was on a bicycle.



He's drawing it down to relieve gas pump prices in short term for his mid term political gain. I believe this is going to cause a snap increase in oil over winter.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...eleases-2022-8

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## killramos

Man is this administration dumb

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## ExtraSlow

I'm a big fan of everything the biden administration has been doing with the SPR. Really super. A+ grade.

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## ExtraSlow

Those who like to talk about the permian, some discussion of what's going on with the private companies there. 
https://www.oilystuffblog.com/news-stuff
Now the "why" is disputed, but the "what" is not. Private drillers are slowing down, and they fed a fair bit of the recent growth in that basin. Consolidation is going to continue, capital discipline will continue, and at some point, it will be come obvious how correct MS is when he says the best locations have all been drilled. Tier 2 locations decline harder, and cost more to complete. Problem is it only becomes obvious in the rearview mirror, about 6-12 months after the wells have been drilled, as the public production data makes it all obvious. 

When the permian can't grow production, that's going to be a huge psychological tipping point. Biden better fill the SPR before that happens...

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## suntan

MS = Mr suntan yes.

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## richardchan2002

Once SPR outflows stop, it’s better for Canada. The US refiners will buy more Canadian Crude which means smaller WTI/WCS differentials.

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## bigboom

> Those who like to talk about the permian, some discussion of what's going on with the private companies there. 
> https://www.oilystuffblog.com/news-stuff
> Now the "why" is disputed, but the "what" is not. Private drillers are slowing down, and they fed a fair bit of the recent growth in that basin. Consolidation is going to continue, capital discipline will continue, and at some point, it will be come obvious how correct MS is when he says the best locations have all been drilled. Tier 2 locations decline harder, and cost more to complete. Problem is it only becomes obvious in the rearview mirror, about 6-12 months after the wells have been drilled, as the public production data makes it all obvious. 
> 
> When the permian can't grow production, that's going to be a huge psychological tipping point. Biden better fill the SPR before that happens...



That probably won't happen till after the midterms, can't go into midterms with oil above $100. Better load up on your O&G companies now.

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## ExtraSlow

Accurate

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## ExtraSlow

Further discussion this weekend with oil people has convinced me that we are going to see some big prices by year-end.
Probably for all energy commodities, but if I was looking for an investment I'd likely want oil over canandian natural gas for any short or medium term thesis.

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## suntan

I took a heloc and bought HOU.

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## ExtraSlow

That seems reasonable.

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## suntan

Stonks to the moon!

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## roopi

> Further discussion this weekend with oil people has convinced me that we are going to see some big prices by year-end.
> Probably for all energy commodities, but if I was looking for an investment I'd likely want oil over canandian natural gas for any short or medium term thesis.



What was said that convinced you we are going to the moon?

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## max_boost

Nah I think prices coming down. That war coming to an end.

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## ExtraSlow

I hope you are right from a humanitarian perspective, but that may not fix the supply constraints worldwide. Even if Russia is under zero sanctions, they have spent a period of time without western companies investing in drilling and maintenance in their projects. Many of those companies will not be able to come back quickly, or at all, so there won't be capital to invest. I think Russia's export capacity will take many years to return to what it was prior to the war with Ukraine.

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## killramos

Let’s put it this way. If people are paying 120k for a Hyundai.

What does that tell you about consumer demand for transportation fuel?

Hint: Supply is not going up.

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## ExtraSlow

Yeah the other side of that is demand for sure. I know the news outlets talk about demand destruction but I think that's a total red herring. Demand isn't going down is in any meaningful global way for liquid fuels. 

So, my thesis on price is this: Demand Flat or up. Supply flat or down. Price cannot go down, probably goes up.

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## mr2mike

> Nah I think prices coming down. That war coming to an end.



 
@89coupe
 is waiting for those 2020 prices still. SU to $5.

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## benyl

Prices are likely coming down because the USD is going up due to the rate hikes.

Demand is dropping, because people have to pay for oil in USD. GBP is near par with the USD. CAD is now $0.72 USD and will likely drop into the 60s before the end of the year. We were near 80cents at the start of this year.

Can't wait to hear the crying south of the border when exports drop. Looks like food cost is going up even more due to exchange rates which means higher rates here... viscous cycle.

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## 89coupe

> @89coupe
>  is waiting for those 2020 prices still. SU to $5.



Fingers crossed

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## max_boost

It’ll happen probably around 2035

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## 89coupe

> It’ll happen probably around 2035



Wanna bet a lunch?

Watch this, yeh it’s a TikTok video, but he’s spot on.

https://vm.tiktok.com/ZMF869uKB/

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## max_boost

What’s the bet? $5 suncor? Cad or usd? Lol I’ll take that bet ahaha

I’ll believe the crash when 911 turbos sell for msrp again lol

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## 89coupe

> What’s the bet? $5 suncor? Cad or usd? Lol I’ll take that bet ahaha
> 
> I’ll believe the crash when 911 turbos sell for msrp again lol



That the market dips to 2020 numbers by April of 2023

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## dimi

Energy will be a great mid-long term investment, but in the short term, a lot more downside. I want to see vix at 50+ before starting to buy.

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## max_boost

I'll take that bet.

2,237.40 SP500

What's an 89coupe lunch these days? $200? lol

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## 89coupe

> I'll take that bet.
> 
> 2,237.40 SP500
> 
> What's an 89coupe lunch these days? $200? lol



2800

If you win, pick your restaurant.

If I win, I pick.

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## max_boost

Dang you really negotiating the march 2020 lows lol

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## max_boost

> 2800
> 
> If you win, pick your restaurant.
> 
> If I win, I pick.



Kk I’ll take that bet then. What’s another 89coupe lunch when I’m already down to 2800 spy lol might as well toast to it. 

I’m gonna ask beyond for the most expensive restaurant and wha to order and drink

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## ExtraSlow

Beyond would ask 'coupe anyway.

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## zechs

> 2800
> 
> If you win, pick your restaurant.
> 
> If I win, I pick.



I know Maxboost won't back out, just want to quote for posterity. You both are awesome in your respective ways haha.

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## msommers

> Kk I’ll take that bet then. What’s another 89coupe lunch when I’m already down to 2800 spy lol might as well toast to it. 
> 
> I’m gonna ask beyond for the most expensive restaurant and wha to order and drink



That would be EIGHT with wine pairings

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## 89coupe

> Kk I’ll take that bet then. What’s another 89coupe lunch when I’m already down to 2800 spy lol might as well toast to it. 
> 
> I’m gonna ask beyond for the most expensive restaurant and wha to order and drink



Ok, bet is at or lower than 2800 points on the S&P 500 index, currently at 3647 on or before end of April 2023

And it’s a lunch, not a night out on the town lol.

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## mr2mike

Lunch/afternoon delight.. 

Either way, you two will make quite the cute couple.

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## msommers

Who will be the Sugar Baby?

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## killramos

> Who will be the Sugar Baby?



Coupe already has the belt in that category

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## max_boost

89coupe is the art of manliness. He is a man of focus, commitment, sheer will, something I know very little about.

He’s a Zaddy.

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## INITIALD

> 89coupe is the art of manliness. He is a man of focus, commitment, sheer will, something I know very little about.
> 
> He’s a Zaddy.



So he is basically John Wick?

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## max_boost

> So he is basically John Wick?



He’s the one  :Big Grin:

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## msommers

I thought that was Neo?

Too many white heroes, amirite

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## redline

> So he is basically John Wick?



Fuck don’t say that his ego is giant as it is … he will not be able to get his head in his m5

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## ExtraSlow

OPEC cutting quotas right before us elections is the ultimate middle finger to Biden. Incredible.

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## Darkane

> OPEC cutting quotas right before us elections is the ultimate middle finger to Biden. Incredible.



Its extraordinary. Cant believe it, and a YUGE cut. 

This should more or less win the republicans the house and senate. 

Dont need much luck now for gas prices to win the midterms.

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## ExtraSlow

Let's go Brandon I guess.

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## Darkane

> Let's go Brandon I guess.



Can’t rep you right now.

----------


## arcticcat522

Didn't the administration say they plan to extend the SPR release? I don't know much about energy or the SPR,but I can't imagine this is a good long term plan.....

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## killramos

Esp when there is a belligerent bear running around trying to start a world war.

But hey, midterms and stuff amirit

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## ExtraSlow

Emptying the SPR any further is an oil bulls wet dream. Makes OPEC even more powerful in the future and limits USA economic and political power. Just incredible. 

In a perverse way, if this goes bad enough, you ought find the next USA president paying to finish KXL. No joke.

----------


## suntan

Putin’s going to pay for KXL?

----------


## ExtraSlow

How many drilling locations are left in the Permian Basin? Novi Labs (formerly Shale Profile I think) looks at it. 

https://novilabs.com/resources/urtec...ne-id-3722909/

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## Darkane

Is it too early to predict the next boom? 

Maybe republicans in 2024, PP in ‘25. KXL completed, oilsands expansions. 

‘26-‘29 might be one hell of a ride. Last kick at the can.

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## ExtraSlow

Truth

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## killramos

Oil is dead. Duh

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## Darkane

> Oil is dead. Duh



Hissssssssing. Never.

----------


## ZenOps

$2 toonie gasoline probably going to be back for winter.

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## Misterman

> Emptying the SPR any further is an oil bulls wet dream.



No kidding. With what's going on in Russia, I already predict higher oil prices this winter as Europe freezes. Then when the US hits their minimum limits on SPR, and has to make a hard pivot to build storage again, we going to be seeing 120-130$/barrel prices.

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## Darkane

> No kidding. With what's going on in Russia, I already predict higher oil prices this winter as Europe freezes. Then when the US hits their minimum limits on SPR, and has to make a hard pivot to build storage again, we going to be seeing 120-130$/barrel prices.



Isn’t the hard stop so they don’t have to fill it aggressively? 

Trickle it in for a couple years. Or build KXL, and fill it for a discount.

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## ExtraSlow

> . Or build kxl, and fill it for a discount.



ily

----------


## Darkane

> ily



You never say it anymore

----------


## Misterman

> Isn’t the hard stop so they don’t have to fill it aggressively? 
> 
> Trickle it in for a couple years. Or build KXL, and fill it for a discount.



I would love to see KXL happen. But I can't see this administration admitting any kind of wrong doing on their part and doing a 180 on a major decision like that.

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## Darkane

> I would love to see KXL happen. But I can't see this administration admitting any kind of wrong doing on their part and doing a 180 on a major decision like that.



Yeah, they won’t pivot. 

Line 3 expansion does have us covered though. They can get quite a bit more of our precious, precious oil that way.

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## suntan

TC won't touch KXL with a 5000 foot pole now.

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## Darkane

> TC won't touch KXL with a 5000 foot pole now.



Likely not. Can it be rebranded and re stamped?

DeSantis/Pollievre power duo are going to make the United Canadian Republic of States energy stars. ‘26-‘29. 

Buckle up. Pro tip - ensure your subway sandwich artist knows about the traditional bread cut. You want them to cut the bread deep enough for triple meat.

----------


## ExtraSlow

I haven't seen original cut for over a decade.

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## mr2mike

The shape is like a pipeline trench. Tell them, do it!

----------


## suntan

Damn totally forgot about the v-cut.

----------


## pheoxs

Now that WTI is back above 90$ how long until we see the gas tax rebate again? is it a 30 day average?

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## redline

90 day average  so after Xmas. We only got 4.5 cents of the 13 cents back. But we shall see if the new master wants to keep a kenbabe policy

----------


## suntan

They're probably going to drop it immediately.

Watch out veggie sub, meat's going back on!

----------


## zechs

The UCP actually has on the books legislation to completely drop the gas tax permanently. It's basically "on hold" until Smith comes into power and decides whether to keep it or not.

I hate the gas tax because it does not pay for what it claims, and I'm all for getting rid of taxes.

----------


## ExtraSlow

I like the gas tax and other consumption taxes, more than income taxes, if we are making comparisons.

----------


## dirtsniffer

Consumption tax over income tax

----------


## suntan

For Alberta, it's almost pointless because of the amount of money made from royalties.

----------


## killramos

All taxes are pointless because the government sucks at providing value for their dollar

----------


## suntan

Sure seems like that these days.

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## dirtsniffer

About 10c on the dollar as I understand it

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## suntan

You are a very optimistic person.

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## ExtraSlow

So, Biden insults saudis, then saudis don't do what he wants, so he threatens them? That's some 5-d chess hombre.



https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...il-output-cuts

----------


## mr2mike

Ol' Joey is not a good president.
I don't think he's got the stamina to do anything good.

----------


## vengie

When diplomacy and being a terrible leader fails, make threats (and still accomplish nothing)

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## ThePenIsMightier

If you're going to call OPEC "_Opec_" then I stop reading your grade-4 "journalism".

----------


## ExtraSlow

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2...-at-g20-summit

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## dimi

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...premium-canada

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...m-The-SPR.html

"Emergency"  :ROFL!:  It's exciting watching this slow motion car crash.

----------


## schurchill39

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china...103248207.html

China stopping sale of LNG to foreign buyers to "ensure they have adequate supply for themselves" which is likely more of a stand with Russian than anything. I'm pretty sure its something like 7% of Europe's energy comes from imported chinese LNG. If only there were another country who could step in and fill that gap if their government didn't stone wall any attempt to develop a network to export natural resources.

----------


## jutes

> https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china...103248207.html
> 
> China stopping sale of LNG to foreign buyers to "ensure they have adequate supply for themselves" which is likely more of a stand with Russian than anything. I'm pretty sure its something like 7% of Europe's energy comes from imported chinese LNG. If only there were another country who could step in and fill that gap if their government didn't stone wall any attempt to develop a network to export natural resources.



With the amount of natural resources we have, we could go full Kuwait and eliminate taxes and pay people to live in Canada. Too bad we have eco-terrorists and mentally deranged climate activists in charge of this country.

----------


## ZenOps

G7 imposes $60 price cap. Putin says he will not sell any oil to nations that participate.

Island nations in deep trouble. Sri Lanka, Haiti, UK.

----------


## ExtraSlow

Not sure where to put this. But do you guys who where the fastest growing economy in the world for the last two years is? Guyana, and it's all dirty oil money baby. Love to see it.

----------


## ExtraSlow

> “Global oil inventory is at the lowest level since 2004, the Department of Energy has released 200 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve this year, OPEC continues to struggle to produce at their stated quota and US producers are helping but can only do so much.”



I hate the writing in this website, but the facts are the facts. Supply constraints seem to be a bigger problem in the next few years than demand. 

Although I disagree about the Middle East. There's a lot of new projects planned to get going in the next year.

----------


## killramos

Oil is dead

----------


## npham

> Not sure where to put this. But do you guys who where the fastest growing economy in the world for the last two years is? Guyana, and it's all dirty oil money baby. Love to see it.



I worked on these projects and it's not slowing down at all in Guyana. You could easily have a full career just working upstream projects there.

----------


## mr2mike

> With the amount of natural resources we have, we could go full Kuwait and eliminate taxes and pay people to live in Canada. Too bad we have eco-terrorists and mentally deranged climate activists in charge of this country.



GDP is a Boomer metric.
Woke metering and Hair Likes now.

----------


## ExtraSlow

I like reading this guy, he's a grumpy bastard, which is probably why I like him. 
https://www.oilystuffblog.com/chart-stuff

----------


## ZenOps

Y'know. Its definitely in Canada's best economic interest to throw in with Putin and not sell to Europe at price cap levels.



I mean for my entire life, the USA has been "Free market this", "Free market that", lets do pure capitalism - charge what its worth! And the second that some Nordic countries are hit with a tiny shortage - its all "oh we should probably make sure they don't lose too much money". Where were all the people when Sri Lanka ran out of fuel?

Is Canada in the business of oil to make friends? Or make money. I don't know if people noticed, but Canadians are in debt too.

A $60 price floor isn't a floor its a bargain basement. $120. Or maybe $60 for the first half million barrels and then market rate for the rest.

----------


## 16hypen3sp

Hoping for a decent bump in oil price. Oil has been in a downtrend since June. I got some oil stocks I need to sell haha.

----------


## Sentry

Oil not needed apparently, the world will heat itself with _good vibes_

----------


## ExtraSlow

Euro heatwave is only thing that matters I hear.

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